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WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model) 513 replies

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WTI Crude Oil Trading

Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} lol holy crap maybe by summer. wti has fallen off a cliff today.
Yep ... I have never seen an ATR above 600.
Attached Image
WTI went down $4.88 today with the highest ATR that I have seen. That ATR produced 1 losing trade, 4 break even trades and 7 winning trades.
Because I don't have enough space to show the whole chart unless I make it very small I'm showing the best trade of the day. Unfortunately I missed it
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we did get a bounce $58 + but hard to tell if the move down is over
Quoting Kwame Freder
we did get a bounce $58 + but hard to tell if the move down is over

Well, a bit of a shocker to see close to 58.00 @ 5.30AM this morning AEST. Anyway bailed @ 64.87 3 days ago, currently 60.15. Remain bullish short/medium term.
If it works for you, run with it. Beware the ides of March : )
i cautiously believe we are at the bottom ($58 area)
WTI went up $1.89 or 3% with an average ATR that produced 1 losing trade, 2 break even trades and 14 winning trades.
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Hey HUTCH - BIG Thanks

Greeting,
I did everything as described in that video and applied 2 indicators, FXBay and HalfTrend to the offline M4 chart. I just want you to take a look at the picture and see if it's all ok? Try to compare with your chart.....if you can
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Quoting kstiks
Hey HUTCH - BIG Thanks Greeting, I did everything as described in that video and applied 2 indicators, FXBay and HalfTrend to the offline M4 chart. I just want you to take a look at the picture and see if it's all ok? Try to compare with your chart.....if you can {image}
The picture is perfect for trading anything with a Mean (Median) Renko chart. It looks like that the indicators work better on Mean Renko than on Normal Renko because each new brick following the trend starts in the middle of the previous brick. The only difference is that I use a Half Trend with a factor of 2 while you use a factor of 1. It looks like that the signals are of better quality using Mean Renko. I changed from Standard Renko with Half Trend TT factor 2 to your Mean Renko chart with Half Trend TT factor 1 and checked the result with the only break even trade of today that occurred at 16:00 on my chart (first chart). Since Mean Renko with Half Trend TT factor 1 gives an earlier signal the signal is a winning trade (second chart) instead of a break even trade. On the other hand, you will see on the chart shown in the next post that there is no losing trade while there are 4 small losing trades using Mean Renko (third picture). Standard and Mean Renko are both good but it's a trader's choice.
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WTI went down 19¢ with a low ATR that produced 8 winning trades and 1 break even trade.
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WTI went down $3.88 today with a high ATR that produced 7 winning trades and 1 break even trade. The best trade would have been the continuation trade from yesterday. Something is seriously wrong with WTI since it doesn't know where to go. Last week it went up and this week it's the opposite.
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One day WTI goes down for 6% and tommorow go up by 6%....there is no sense any more...nice trading.
So, tommorow is dowd day?
Quoting kstiks
One day WTI goes down for 6% and tommorow go up by 6%....there is no sense any more...nice trading. So, tommorow is dowd day?
Yup. Trading crude is the easiest way to blow up an account. I wouldn't call this a dead cat bounce. The positive vaccine news out of Europe along with OPEC+ news that they'll keep production the same at the April meeting has been the two major triggers.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
Live All Time Return: -27.5%
I'm looking for reliable Long/Short position summary (Sentiment) for Crude
Kindly assist if you know of any source

An example is shown below
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...9&d=1616243377

Found this through google -- Crude Oil Prices: Brent and WTI Price Chart, Forecast & News (dailyfx.com) Sentiment is fairly balanced, MM may go short
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Yup. Trading crude is the easiest way to blow up an account. I wouldn't call this a dead cat bounce. The positive vaccine news out of Europe along with OPEC+ news that they'll keep production the same at the April meeting has been the two major triggers. {image}
Thanks for the info, also saw this: https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade...ck-news-210308

Thinking of going long on the small pull-back at $60.75, will try a small lot
Unclear situation - placed a stop at $60.30
Quoting Kafin
{quote} Thanks for the info, also saw this: https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade...ck-news-210308 Thinking of going long on the small pull-back at $60.75, will try a small lot Unclear situation - placed a stop at $60.30
Next week is the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. It looks like Saudi Arabia will continue to be the swing producer and keep production as is no matter what Russia or anybody else does. That's positive for oil prices. It could be what we are seeing being priced in today. Not sure.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
Live All Time Return: -27.5%
As if trading crude wasn't messy enough (at least from where I sit), this debacle in the Suez canal seems to be clogging up oil tankers. Away from that, I do think the return of demand will be steady - already seeing promising news as it relates to airlines.
Risk recycler.
Yesterday I stated that WTI doesn't know where to and WTI proved it going down 6% yesterday and going up 6% today. WTI went up $3.45 today with a high ATR that provided 6 winning trades, 1 break even trade and 1 weird losing trade between arrow 8 and 9.
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doesn't look like wti is able to sustain a rally. however the big moves both ways are providing trading oppurtunities
Quoting Hutch
Yesterday I stated that WTI doesn't know where to and WTI proved it going down 6% yesterday and going up 6% today. WTI went up $3.45 today with a high ATR that provided 6 winning trades, 1 break even trade and 1 weird losing trade between arrow 8 and 9. {image}

Hi Hutch,

Can you please my chart and give some insights as to why the renko is looking bit different than yours. 1st chart is renko standard with no wicks and second is with wicks. I am mainly concentrating on the without wick chart (i.e., 1st chart). btw brick size is 10 which is not showing here properly in the chart
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Quoting civilpes2001
{quote} Hi Hutch, Can you please my chart and give some insights as to why the renko is looking bit different than yours. 1st chart is renko standard with no wicks and second is with wicks. I am mainly concentrating on the without wick chart (i.e., 1st chart). btw brick size is 10 which is not showing here properly in the chart {image} {image}
Normal Renko without wicks sometimes shows wicks when there is a big trend change. Before a new brick of size 10 is formed there could have been a wick up/down of 9+ pips so using wicks the bar size with wicks could be close to 30 pips. This is normally not a problem. The biggest problem that I have and I contacted my broker about it is a delay in tick sometimes as large as 8 seconds on M1 source charts. These delays affect the formation of new bricks and can lead to losses. Using the Infoboard indicator please check if there is a delay on your M1 chart. Data feed is the main reason for differences between charts whether it is a normal time frame chart or Renko. I know this is not much of an explanation but I hope it helps.
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