It is about SURFING the (down)TREND...
Seems very slippery atm... even Saudi situation haven't been able to put it up for too long.
TREND (at least till the end of OCT) is believed to be (according to my projections) SOUTH:
My price prediction model of 10+ years is basically the same, at least CORE of it, regardless of the applied market... But since it has been used on the EURUSD the most... I use it also to assess it's quality/precision based on that chart... So the closer the price is around the violet line (merlins line - output of the model, for this market), the better it works... At the moment, the price is bellow the line which is synced with the downtrend direction, but I do not like that it is like 100+ PIPs below... I would much prefer it to be closer, ideally swinging around the line, even though it was predicted on 25jul19... it is recalculating all the time and it implies that it should hold till the end (of oct)...
Additional info for your help:
CORRELATIONS.. eurusd to OIL.. or currencies to OIL
TP (not to be greedy but it is also variable, depending on the daily moves, liquidity etc...)..
But I would say like 20-50PIPs change at the time would be good.
Leverage: I would be looking at let's say 10-20:1 Leverage... Again, depending on the market volume, volatility...
SL: I do not want to discuss this religious thing... But I might be open to higher risks than famous 1:1, if the market would indicate some price would need some wider "turning radius" before it reaches the "final destination"
Questions before entering trade:
- Trend still seems south or "anything unusual"?
- Any special news/events?
- Volume/Liquidity ok?
- Good "part of the day" (meaning not a STALL but not SPIKEs either)?
- What would be optimal TP (depending on the daily (past/projected) moves, some fraction of it?
At the moment it is like this...
- South trends seems reconfirmed, trajectory, extrapolation test ok
- TP 50 would seem good
- Not a good time of the day (lower volume), would skip the night, revaluate in the morning
- Some rebounds atm, would let this roll before Shorting..
- Controlling parameter (eurusd model prediction vs reality): not good/optimal, 100+ pips under the line...
Current decision: Awaiting for a few more days to see how it goes... Not entering..
Will track this closely and decide by the end of the week if I should open/post/link dedicated TE (TradeExplorer) to this thread so that you can see in practice.
And all this could be automated, I would just be placing it manually atm...