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Attachments: Trading Oil WTI to get back all!
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Trading Oil WTI to get back all!

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Feb 29, 2016 12:44pm Feb 29, 2016 12:44pm
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Last month... ...

I blowed an 1K account again in two weeks on Jan. 20, SPX long positions were stopped out around 1820 and WTI long positions stopped out at 26.68. Yes! all of them are stopped at the bottom.

Am I newbie? Not at all. I knew risk control, I knew counter-trend trading like catching falling knives and non-productive, I knew money management, I almost knew everything about trading. But I just can't help myself.

I WAS A GAMBLER! A stupid gambler without self-control and decipline, but with getting-rich-fast greed!

Several days later,$300 wired to the account , lost again like a drop of water in desert. It was painful, really painful.

Asking why, I came back to FF and started to read posts and learn again. In one of the posts, I happend to find an introduction to a book -- Pit Bull by Marty Schaltz. I read it from a website. In fact, there is nothing about trading I learned, but the fact the author worked 16 hours every day including weekends, that impressed me! Remember, Marty was champions of American futures contest during 1980s, and he kept the championship for 10 years(?)! But he still worked so hard. At that time he made several millions every year, but he still worked so hard.

So I need to work hard also and be serious! Because I can not lose any more!! I have lost too much! The story? No, I won't tell. If I make it one day, finally, maybe I will tell the sad story about a pethetic speculator.

Transfer another $200 again two weeks ago, this time, I will make a difference, and I will strike back!

I have to be honest to myself. No more things like "oh, I have too many positions now, but this is the last time. Oh, I added more positions to average down the losses of bad trades, I know it is wrong and stupid, but, this is my last time.". These are just excuses to make the same mistakes over and over again!

Fortunately, there is a secritive place like trading journal in FF. I will take this place, start a thread to record my tradings, right or wrong, but be honest to me and the FF community if any one happenns to view this journal.

OK, time to work.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Feb 29, 2016 1:07pm Feb 29, 2016 1:07pm
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
By now,

16 WTI long @29.60,
10 @30.90, (add-on)
10 @30.93, (add-on)

Stop loss is 29.40. The price is 32.23 now. Very far away, this stop loss is no use. Unless a huge oil field is found overnight, it won't get hit. If the price can't break 32.80, I will consider to close some or all positions. Could be a double top.


2400 units G/U @1.3889(average of 3 positions)

G/U trading had some problems. Timing to short is not good for today.

I tried long positions hopinging to catch a big fish. But, counter-trend trading again. Stupid. So today, stopped out @3858, and short a position @3857, added @3885 and @3925. Added to a losing position is not healthy, but the trend is obviously is bearish. Unless, something unusual happened, it should be OK, but tommorow I will reduce G/U positions. And, if trading G/U caused a loss again, I will stop, and concentrate on WTI.
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Feb 29, 2016 1:48pm Feb 29, 2016 1:48pm
  •  LITEchild
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member of the 5% club | 1,300 Posts
Quoting StrikeBack
Disliked
Last month... ... I blowed an 1K account again in two weeks on Jan. 20, SPX long positions were stopped out around 1820 and WTI long positions stopped out at 26.68. Yes! all of them are stopped at the bottom. Am I newbie? Not at all. I knew risk control, I knew counter-trend trading like catching falling knives and non-productive, I knew money management, I almost knew everything about trading. But I just can't help myself. I WAS A GAMBLER! A stupid gambler without self-control and decipline, but with getting-rich-fast greed! Several days later,$300...
Ignored
Unfortunately an all too familiar story among traders. But one way to really help stop the vicious cycle is to stop trading live for a while. Practice on a Demo or cent account until you work out a proper plan, strategy, psychology, proper risk management structure, etc. If possible get a mentor. Someone who can caution when you start to self destruct. Always analyse past trades. Study the data, and learn, learn, learn. You can still make it. But you have to learn to be patient!
Try to post charts of your entries and trades. Some kind traders may try to help out too. Lastly, forget about revenge trading. It will only mess up your psyche.
Its not the indicators. Its how you use them. The thought process is key!
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Feb 29, 2016 9:10pm Feb 29, 2016 9:10pm
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Quoting LITEchild
Disliked
{quote} Unfortunately an all too familiar story among traders. But one way to really help stop the vicious cycle is to stop trading live for a while. Practice on a Demo or cent account until you work out a proper plan, strategy, psychology, proper risk management structure, etc. If possible get a mentor. Someone who can caution when you start to self destruct. Always analyse past trades. Study the data, and learn, learn, learn. You can still make it. But you have to learn to be patient! Try to post charts of your entries and trades. Some kind traders...
Ignored
Thank you. I stopped trading for 2 and half months and started trading at the beginning of this year. You are right, I should have strategy, plan, etc. The problem is psychology. Overtrading, impatient, can't let it go.
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:07am Mar 1, 2016 2:07am
  •  LITEchild
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member of the 5% club | 1,300 Posts
Quoting StrikeBack
Disliked
{quote} The problem is psychology. Overtrading, impatient, can't let it go.
Ignored
yes you can. It takes work. work out a trading exercise that forces you to drop all the bad habits and conditioning. Nobody was born with bad habits. Its all aquired over years of over indulgence and impatience. The good habits and discipline can also be aquired.
Its not the indicators. Its how you use them. The thought process is key!
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:08am Mar 1, 2016 2:08am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
I am off today. So I can trade the European morning session. Problem now!

G/U daily is a white candle. 8:00 AM (New York time), Feb. 29 is a strong white candle. First leg of a bull market bottom? I know. But 3 G/U short positions are in red with -ve 57 pips. After European market openned, if the price goes up further, I will cut 1 or 2 postions (if 2, loss is 5%), mayby it will rebound to 1.4040, well, that is 100 pips difference. Or, after the stop-loss, price will drop again, in that case, losses are meaningless. I don't know. If that happens, I am so unlucky. I will keep 1 position of 3925. And no more G/U position. If G/U bearish trend is not over, surely, it will come back, and this position will be profitable. If not, well, cut the losses with -150 pips.

Pound trades of yesterday were mistakes from the beginning. I was about to catch the Pound bottom, but I changed idiea after long positions were stopped out and shorted with bad price. No plan before. If I wanted to short, I shoud have shorted on 26 Feb. No more trading G/U, only WTI. But I will be watching G/U, waiting for a opportunity to long.


WTI long positions, also problem. The up trend is weak, and a resistance of 32.86 is 30 cents away from 32.57 now. If the price goes south, I will close add-on positions. The stop-loss order placeed @3197, if triggered, the add-on two WTI positions closed with about 100 cents(or pips).
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  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:22am Mar 1, 2016 2:22am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Quoting LITEchild
Disliked
{quote} yes you can. It takes work. work out a trading exercise that forces you to drop all the bad habits and conditioning. Nobody was born with bad habits. Its all aquired over years of over indulgence and impatience. The good habits and discipline can also be aquired.
Ignored
Thank you very much for your kind words.

Yes, I am working on to get rid of bad habbits by posting here my trades and thoughts about market. In fact, I made the same mistakes again yesterday. I longed G/U as a test. After G/U long positions stopped out, I should let it go, and stop G/U trading. But instead I turned around and shorted G/U, added 2 more.

Today I will let it go. No more new G/U positions, wait for a good opportunity.
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  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:37am Mar 1, 2016 2:37am
  •  LITEchild
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member of the 5% club | 1,300 Posts
Quoting StrikeBack
Disliked
{quote} Today I will let it go. No more new G/U positions, wait for a good opportunity. {image}
Ignored
On the other hand all the good habits and discipline in the world will not help you if your strategy, technical/fundamental reference framework and price/time analysis are wrong. Expert advisors are 100% disciplined and maintain all the 'good' habits they are programmed for. Yet most dont make consistent profit. Try to learn the right lessons from your mistakes. My trading methodology has actually flagged GU as the highest probability pair to trade today and my orders locked and loaded! I think the first thing you need to work on is a robust trading strategy. Else you will just be gambling. Have a checklist that must be ticked off before taking any trade.

EDIT: Just got filled as I finished typing....
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Its not the indicators. Its how you use them. The thought process is key!
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:39am Mar 1, 2016 2:39am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
set stop loss order on WTI.

No stop loss order on G/U, prepare to cut loss manually 2 positions.
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  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:57am Mar 1, 2016 2:57am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Quoting LITEchild
Disliked
{quote} On the other hand all the good habits and discipline in the world will not help you if your strategy, technical/fundamental reference framework and price/time analysis are wrong. Expert advisors are 100% disciplined and maintain all the 'good' habits they are programmed for. Yet most dont make consistent profit. Try to learn the right lessons from your mistakes. My trading methodology has actually flagged GU as the highest probability pair to trade today and my orders locked and loaded! I think the first thing you need to work on is a robust...
Ignored
Yes you are right. I have trading system derived from a stategy. Later I will say my system.

2 positions cut with total loss about 200 pips, tuition fees again. I will let it go. The last G/U short position shall be stop lossed around 1.4040.

congradulations on your G/U long trades.
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:22am Mar 1, 2016 5:22am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
One WTI position closed @32.48 (using a stop loss, it's like trailing), the profit almost covered the losses of G/U trades.

I think G/U is still bearish. As I said, let it go and concentrate on WTI only, so I didn't do anything with G/U. I trade part time now. Should focus on one instrument only.

WTI price falling looks more like a correction, because it dropped only 30 pips, and the fall is weak.

31.70 range shall be a good price to long again. But who knows, if the bull is strong it won't reach that far and will take a flight.
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Mar 2, 2016 6:40am Mar 2, 2016 6:40am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Time to trade.

WTI is bullish without doubt. Two points should be noticed. Fisrt, the up trend is not strong due to indecision of OPEC and Non-OPEC production freeze. Secondly, overnight API report is very bearigh, several million barrels of inventory increas, which caused a sharp drom in 15 minute chart.

However I should maintain the belief that, the trend is up, I should keeping longs and add long position. By now, I have added 3 more positions yesterday during US session(evarage @32.26). The other 2 positions have profits of 270 cents and 140 cents. So the position size is OK, not heavy. But I will take chance to reduce 2 positions before IEA report due to 10:30 AM (EST time). After IEA, I will make decision to add more or close all.
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  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Mar 2, 2016 7:48am Mar 2, 2016 7:48am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Add 1 wti position @32.558, 15M candle is strong, if there is short time retracement around 32.40, then add one more. Stop loss 32.09
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  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Mar 2, 2016 7:55am Mar 2, 2016 7:55am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
It seems that 2 trend line in 1h candles are functional.
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  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:17am Mar 3, 2016 7:17am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Yesterday, WTI was a huge yoyo after EIA report. The news is bearish, 10million inventory increase far more than 2.5m estimate. The price did drop, but 15 min later a huge up!

Lessons: Just as "reminiscenses" described, all depends on market whether it is bullish or bearish. A bearish news only causes correction in a trend market.

G/U position closed with two more add-ons. Some losses occurred. Stupid me! I paid prices for the mistakes.

Lessons: Concentrate one 1 or max. 2 instruments which you are very familiar, and follow everyday. I haven't traded G/U for 4 years, really lost the feeling about it.

The profits from WTI far covered the losses from G/U. By now [email protected], I have 7 positions piled up in WTI with profts of 370, 240, 128X2, 87, 40X2. Good profits. Riding on trend and add on winners strategy is the best, of course there should be a trend!
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:30am Mar 3, 2016 7:30am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
The market is still bullish, although not strong bull. The price made new high yesterday compared to the previous day. No sign of top or turn around, so, I should keep on and insist bullish bias.

No counter trend trading, no guess of top, no guess of retrace ment. If such things happenned I would take relevent actions.

If price shall break low 33.02, I will closed addons of 32.93. Wait for a possible retracement around 32.70.
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  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:56am Mar 3, 2016 7:56am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
Add one position @33.367, stop loss @33.19 or 33.12, I will see. this price is higher than 1 position I closed @33.31. This is intraday trading problem. You tried buy low and close higher, even no conter-trend trading, even after a retracement, the final profits would be less than holding a position from the beginning.

This is due to over night missed profits, the triger pricefor re-entry is worse, spikes, etc. In some very strong trend, the retracement would be less than 50 pips(cents in WTI case), how can you profit from a 50 pips range?

WTI prices is only in 34 pips range from the beginning of European session until now. I think breakout up is more probable.
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  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:29am Mar 4, 2016 5:29am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
I didn't cus loss of yesterday's first long position. Added 2 more around 3310, luckily, when the bull striked back, I closed two positions around 3360 and 3387(limit order, very lucky! only 2 pips lower than the highest)

The stong rise last only 1 hour, and retraced more than it should have. This morming I continue closing more positions around 33.40. The bull is not strong, better reduce some trades and keep low size of long positions.

Set up 2 more positions around 33.30. NFP is due in 3 hours, there will be some valitility. Better wait after NFP, any way, I have long positions, no way to be left behind. Just proper size is OK. Today is friday, I won't to keep much over weekend.

If, WTI dropped again, I will close most of the positions below @32.77.
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  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Mar 4, 2016 10:01am Mar 4, 2016 10:01am
  •  StrikeBack
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 29 Posts
closed all long positions @33.20, short 1 postion at the same time which is only a test. Three weeks, the target of 5%~15% profit goald is achieved. Maybe I am wrong, I don't know. Stop loss is @ 33.95. The bear can be confirmed if is break down 32.78, the a head and shoulders is formed. Who knows?

Yesterday, the red candle o f11:00(EST) is quite unnormal for a bull. It is weekend, it seems the bull lost power. From 33.05 to 33.80 which is less than 80 pips, then the price declined. For 3 days, the price is in a range, and it would be possible, a top is going to form? I don't know
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