US Personal Spending m/m

U.S. PCE inflation heated up a touch in October, in-line with our forecasts and the consensus. PCE inflation increased 0.238% in October up from 0.180% in September with the year-on-year inflation rate increasing to 2.3% from 2.1% in the prior month. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, increased 0.273% at the three-digit level up from 0.261% in September with the year-on-year inflation rate inching up to 2.8% from 2.7% in September and 2.6% in June (the low for the year). No surprises on ...

US inflation figures in the coming week that are seen showing stubborn price pressures will reinforce the Federal Reserve’s cautionary posture toward future interest-rate cuts. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — is projected to have risen by 0.3% in October from September, and by 2.8% from a year earlier, in what would be the largest advance since April. The report is also expected to reveal resilient household spending and steady income ...

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation posted its biggest monthly gain since April, bolstering the case for a slower pace of interest-rate cuts following last month’s outsize reduction. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 0.3% in September, and 2.7% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Thursday. Overall inflation was 2.1%, the lowest since early 2021 and just above the central bank’s ...

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation and household spending rose modestly in August, underscoring a cooling economy. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy items, increased 0.1% from July, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. On a three-month annualized basis, the measure rose 2.1%, in line with the central bank’s target. Spending also rose 0.1% after adjusting for inflation. Nominal personal income increased 0.2% and ...

The main focus in the August personal income and spending report is the core PCE deflator, which the Federal Reserve tends to favour as the gauge to watch for underlying price pressures in the US economy. The 0.1% month-on-month outcome is better than the consensus forecast of 0.2% and when measured to 2 decimal places it is 0.13%, below the 0.17% MoM threshold (black line in the chart below) that if repeated over 12 months would generate the targeted 2% year-on-year inflation. The YoY rate ticked up to 2.7%, but it should drop back ...