US Core Retail Sales m/m

Retail sales jumped by 0.7% in November from October, to $720 billion, seasonally adjusted, and October was revised higher (blue in the chart below), and so we look at the 3-month average (red in the chart), which irons out the month-to-month squiggles and includes the revisions, and it jumped by 0.7% as well. November’s sales increase and the three-month average sales increase annualized amount to +8.6%! And it wasn’t just November, or the past three months. The spending spree started in July. Retail sales have sharply accelerated ...

The main event in the European session was the UK employment report. The data was much better than expected, especially on the wage growth side, and the GBP got a boost from that. In terms of market pricing it shouldn't change much as the BoE is widely expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged this week. In the American session, the Canadian CPI and the US Retail Sales will take the spotlight. The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs. 2.0% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.4% prior. The Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is ...

US retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, a touch higher than the consensus 0.3% MoM expectation while September’s growth rate was revised up to 0.8% from 0.4%. A big 1.6% MoM increase in autos was the main factor, but building materials (+0.5%) and restaurants and bars (+0.7%) both contributed strongly. The “control” group, which excludes volatile items (the three just listed plus gasoline) and has a better record of tracking broader consumer spending that includes services, was quite a bit weaker, falling 0.1% MoM versus ...

October retail sales grew from the prior month, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer. Retail sales rose 0.4% in October. Economists had expected a 0.3% spending, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in September were revised up to a 0.8% increase from a prior reading that showed a 0.4% increase in the month, according to Census Bureau data. Auto sales drove a majority of the gains in October's reading with sales in the sector rising 1.6%. October sales, excluding auto and gas, rose just 0.1%, below ...

Soft' (Philly Fed & NAHB) and 'Hard' data (Retail Sales, Initial Claims) improved today but manufacturing production shit the bed... chart Ignoring the manufacturing slump, this data reinforced the 'no landing' narrative and pushed rate-cut expectations notably (hawkishly) lower... chart Additionally, The Trump Trade has taken hold of the narrative for now... chart Goldman's Chloe Garber told clients today that Polymarket is priced at 60/40, there is ~1.5% upside to 65/35 odds, and 4% downside to 50/50 odds. "I think there is a ...