US Prelim GDP q/q

After a year of unprecedented scrutiny, the Fed Reserve’s monetary policy committee will again be the focus of market attention on Dec. 18, as it makes its final rate decision for 2024. The question on the minds of investors around the globe is, will the Fed continue the rate-cut path it commenced in September? These three data points will be key to the Fed’s decision.

U.S. PCE inflation heated up a touch in October, in-line with our forecasts and the consensus. PCE inflation increased 0.238% in October up from 0.180% in September with the year-on-year inflation rate increasing to 2.3% from 2.1% in the prior month. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, increased 0.273% at the three-digit level up from 0.261% in September with the year-on-year inflation rate inching up to 2.8% from 2.7% in September and 2.6% in June (the low for the year). No surprises on ...

Revised up 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Final sales up 0.2 ppts. GDO rises 2.1% q/q SAAR. chart Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (green), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based on 2nd release. GDP+ iterated on 2019Q4 GDP level. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (July release), Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations. chart Figure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter growth of GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue square), final sales (red), all SAAR. GDP based on second release. Source: BEA, ...

This preview of weekly data looks at USOIL and XAUUSD where economic data coming up later this week are the main market drivers for the near short-term outlook. The most important economic data for this week are: Preliminary German inflation, US GDP, EU Flash inflation, US PCE index, NBS manufacturing PMI Thursday: Preliminary German inflation rate at 12:00 PM GMT. The market consensus for the month of August is for a decline on the figure of around 0.2% reaching 2.1%. If this is broadly accurate then it could most probably influence ...

The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 1.3% annual pace from January through March, the weakest quarterly rate since the spring of 2022, the government said Thursday in a downgrade from its previous estimate. Consumer spending rose but at a slower pace than previously thought, a sign that high interest rates and lingering inflation are pressuring household budgets. The Commerce Department had previously estimated that the nation’s gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — expanded at a 1.6% rate last quarter. The ...

The US economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter than initially reported, primarily reflecting softer consumer spending on goods. Gross domestic product rose 1.3% annualized in the first three months of the year, below the previous estimate of 1.6%, Bureau of Economic Analysis figures published Thursday showed. The economy’s main growth engine — personal spending — advanced 2.0%, versus the previous estimate of 2.5%. The numbers underscore a loss of momentum to start 2024 after continual upside surprises in 2023. High ...