US Retail Sales m/m

Retail sales rose 0.1% in August from July, seasonally adjusted, on top of the upwardly revised 1.1% jump in July, and the 0.3% dip in June. Not seasonally adjusted, retail sales jumped by 1.5% in August from July to $737 billion. To iron out the month-to-month squiggles and revisions, we like to look at the three-month average (chart below), which rose 0.3% month-to-month and 2.3% year-over-year. The biggest gainer was ecommerce, the second-largest retailer category behind auto dealers: +1.4% month-to-month, +7.8% year-over-year. ...

Hot retail sales print and better than expected Industrial production data are not exactly what the doves wanted to see ahead of tomorrow's big decision (25 or 50bps). Does this look like an economy that needs rate-cuts? chart To complicate things further for traders, NikiLeaks (WSJ's Nick Timiraos) said withholding a larger cut could raise awkward questions (and Goldman's trading desk reminded that going back to Bernanke, the Fed typically delivers close to what the market is pricing in)... which is currently around 42bps of cuts ...

US retail sales in August were stronger than anticipated, rising by 0.1% month-on-month versus the -0.2% consensus, while July's growth rate was revised up to 1.1% from the initial 1% reported. The control group, which excludes volatile items and has a better tracking record for broader consumer spending, grew 0.3% as expected, but again there was a 0.1pp upward revision to July's growth rate – now 0.4%. Industrial production was also stronger than anticipated in August, rising by 0.8% MoM versus the 0.2% consensus forecast. July's ...

No, Goldilocks is not back! Retail Sales soared in August... thanks to massive historical revisions and a surge in Auto sales... but Auto production crashed by the most since COVID lockdowns (lowering GDP expectations)... and homebuilder sentiment slumped... and the Philly Fed business outlook plunged... and the Empire Fed Manufacturing survey remains in contraction for the 9th straight month... and import and export price inflation was hotter than expected... all of which sent the macro surprise index down to 2024 lows... chart ...

Natural Gas: chart Natural gas pulls back despite the bullish EIA report, which indicated that working gas in storage declined by 6 Bcf from the previous week. In case natural gas pulls back below the $2.15 level, it will head towards the nearest support at $2.00 – $2.05. WTI Oil: chart WTI oil rebounds after the recent sell-off. Traders react to the strong U.S. Retail Sales report, which showed that U.S. economy remained in a decent shape. A move above the $78.00 level will push WTI oil towards the resistance at $79.00 – $80.00. ...

The initial wave of today’s US data was quite a bit firmer than expected with retail sales rising 1% month-on-month versus the 0.4% consensus with the control group, which excludes some of the volatile items, seeing sales rise 0.3% MoM versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. There were some downward revisions to the history, but this is still a firmer-than-anticipated outcome. The headline figure was boosted by a 3.6% MoM jump in vehicle sales, but there was also decent strength in electronics (+1.6%), building materials (+0.9%), food & ...

US retail sales accelerated in July by the most since early 2023 in a broad advance that points to a resilient consumer, even in the face of high prices and borrowing costs. The value of retail purchases, unadjusted for inflation, increased 1% in July and helped by a sharp snapback in car sales, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. Excluding autos and gasoline stations, sales were up 0.4%. Ten of the report’s 13 categories posted increases. Car sales bounced back strongly after a cyberattack on auto dealerships led to a sizable ...