Crude oil is supposed to be oversupplied by 3 million barrels a day, but only 1 million appears on inventory. Which one to believe... inventory supposedly is historically more reliable.
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DislikedIt is going to get uglier I think, but I'm betting big on US oil companies, which is also a bet on Shale. There is some pretty poor application of logic to the industry as a whole, people are always talking about Shale as if it is the end of the good times. My prediction is shale is going to end up the big winner out of all this, with increased market share, and more production than ever before. Why is it I say that? Shale productivity keeps improving and will continue to improve. It isn't even close to being the most expensive oil to extract. Offshore...Ignored
Disliked{quote} You could be along the right track long term, if you have the nerve to sit tight.. but I wouldn't expect Oil to be a great industry to be invested in 2016.. It's not just the OPEC oversupply, it's the fact that Iran is about to flood the market for the first time in 30 years +. My guess is, even if shale becomes the Oil of choice in the end, prices will be a long time working out where the bottom is, before any sustained rebounds in this sector. I'd be looking at Gold miners first, interest rates will only go up from here, which will help...Ignored
DislikedIt's not so much the actual impact of Iran, it's the uncertainty surrounding it. That's what spooks the market, and until it works out, I think Oil will be finding a range down here for a while. Re Gold miners.. yeah you're probably right of needing another shove lower in price. But in general, Gold has had a couple of years to work itself out (unlike Oil), some of the smaller companies have done all the streamlining needed to survive, there are a few (after doing research) who are primed ready for any uptick in this sector. Interest rates will...Ignored
Falkland Oil and Gas Limited
("FOGL" or "the Company")
Oil Discovery at 14/20-2 exploration well on the Isobel/Elaine Fan Complex
Disliked..... The write downs aren't over, the bankruptcies haven't even began. Shale will consolidate, the smaller companies will get taken over, the technology will move on, Shale will come out the other end leaner and more competitive than ever and the real loser will be offshore oil.Ignored
Disliked{quote} The bankruptcies are beginning. Offshore oil is viable around and above $40, so it will stay in the ground at current prices I feel.Ignored
DislikedYou need a strong stomach for this market right now We are already in stupid territory, how long can this last for nobody knows. Lets hope there are no unexpected surprises that we haven't yet thought of... Like China deciding to go fully renewableIgnored
Disliked{quote} The latest I heard was that China generated less electricity in 2015 than it did in 2014. This is interpreted as signalling that China industry is slowing. ...or it might mean that they are switching to non-electric renewables.Ignored
DislikedAfter a longer period than I anticipated we appear to have arrived at the 'watershed'. Something is going to happen with oil in the next couple of months.... And in other news, the first 'mechanical' solar plant has begun generating electricity in Morocco. At least I assume it is the first, I have not heard of another around the world. A system of mirrors heats a steam generator and thereafter the usual generating processes. Two things worthy of note: First that the efficiency is less than Photovoltaic generating systems.... Second that the Sun's...Ignored
DislikedHey.. hope you took a look at Gold miners. Since I posted here January 1st..? Good gains all round. I think there's plenty legs in it too, there will be some obvious dips to buy in on along the way. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G...cking%22:true}Ignored
Dislikeda lot of the main miners in GDX have cut costs snd can make a profit on $800 -$1000 gold. ABX , SLW etc so it's been or still is under the cost of production for a long timeIgnored