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Technical Analysis of Energy Markets

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Aug 14, 2019 11:40pm Aug 14, 2019 11:40pm
Interesting new site here where I can have my observations on crude in an orderly manner. Lets get down to business and start Crude

As the daily chart below shows, WTI currently locked in a sideways range with roughly $60 on the upside and $50 on the downside.

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Here is where it gets interesting. Looking at the 60M chart, WTI has broken below its rising trendline which had been in place for nearly 7 days and is now facing resistance at $57 and appears to be headed to the lower end of the range.

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Quoting demontrade
Here is where it gets interesting.
Looks like a larger downward channel as well. Are you a bear for the time being?
Quoting vpn
{quote} Looks like a larger downward channel as well. Are you a bear for the time being?
Yes! Bear on a larger time-frame while below 62 and then importantly 67, and WTI is sideways on a medium term time frame within 60-50. On the short term time frame it is again bearish and headed towards $50!

A move above $67 is needed to shift larger trend to bullish.
Good to hear. I don't see 67 happening again save for war happening, which I don't really foresee on the horizon.
Looking at WTI today, below the trendline, crude has once again gone inside a very small range of $55.32 and $53.97. A break of the range will give us next swing trade. I still think there is more downside in store. Look that Trender indicator on all 3 time frames point downward. (Trender is a Bloomberg indicator which is similar to parabolic sar). What do other guys think?

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54.66 as we speak
There has been little change in crude outlook as of now, but it is providing better levels to enter short position. I am entering with SL above $55.67 and target $54.00

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She's definitely looking like she's losing steam!
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Quoting C8H18
She's definitely looking like she's losing steam! {image}
Yeah but unfortunately I got stopped out. Will look to re-enter a short trade.
I was thinking short too. Do you think this channel on the H4 looks legitimate?
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Quoting vpn
I was thinking short too. Do you think this channel on the H4 looks legitimate?{image}
Yeah absolutely and currently crude near the upper end of the channel. A down move is likely shortly and it appears that it is waiting for some trigger. Perhaps some news or API data later today.
Cool - I ended up going limit short and my order was filled... we'll see how she does:
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Quoting vpn
Cool - I ended up going limit short and my order was filled... we'll see how she does:{image}
Good luck. Where have you kept stop?
Quoting demontrade
{quote} Yeah but unfortunately I got stopped out. Will look to re-enter a short trade.
Were you able to re-enter and collect some profits? You had the set-up
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  • Post #15
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  • Edited 2:13am Aug 21, 2019 1:57am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting C8H18
{quote} Were you able to re-enter and collect some profits? You had the set-up {image}
Yeah indeed I did but just a very small 20 ticks profit.

Looking ahead, crude got support yesterday at around 100-hour average which now is the fulcrum for short term and needs to break.

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Good stuff! In and out at the right time! The bulls have been stampeding as of late
Crude is in some sort of an uptrend on the 30M chart, however that will break on a fall below $54.80. I would enter short there or on a rally towards $56.70

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Quoting demontrade
{quote} Yeah indeed I did but just a very small 20 ticks profit. Looking ahead, crude got support yesterday at around 100-hour average which now is the fulcrum for short term and needs to break. {image}
Where are those screenshots from? That wouldn't be Bloomberg terminal by any chance?
As for market being locked etc.. I do not think we will see much action until tomorrows Powell's "kick in the nuts" speech...
Can you afford to take that chance?
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Where are those screenshots from? That wouldn't be Bloomberg terminal by any chance? As for market being locked etc.. I do not think we will see much action until tomorrows Powell's "kick in the nuts" speech...
Yeah that's Bloomberg terminal which I use along with Bloomberg proprietory indicator "Trender". Agree Powell speech today is hugely important.
Crude had a huge selloff today, with a trigger which it was searching all week. Finally the trigger was China tariffs. It broke below its all important level of $54.80 and is now headed towards $51.0 - $50.50 which is where the next support lay. If that breaks, then an extremly sharp fall may be seen. However that's for later. For now enjoying the ride to $51.0 - $50.50

Look at the trender indicator across all timeframes is bearish

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