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Technical Analysis of Energy Markets

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Aug 14, 2019 11:40pm Aug 14, 2019 11:40pm
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Interesting new site here where I can have my observations on crude in an orderly manner. Lets get down to business and start Crude

As the daily chart below shows, WTI currently locked in a sideways range with roughly $60 on the upside and $50 on the downside.

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Here is where it gets interesting. Looking at the 60M chart, WTI has broken below its rising trendline which had been in place for nearly 7 days and is now facing resistance at $57 and appears to be headed to the lower end of the range.

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  • Post #2
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  • Aug 15, 2019 12:42am Aug 15, 2019 12:42am
  •  vpn
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 124 Posts
Quoting demontrade
Disliked
Here is where it gets interesting.
Ignored
Looks like a larger downward channel as well. Are you a bear for the time being?
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Aug 15, 2019 2:20am Aug 15, 2019 2:20am
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Quoting vpn
Disliked
{quote} Looks like a larger downward channel as well. Are you a bear for the time being?
Ignored
Yes! Bear on a larger time-frame while below 62 and then importantly 67, and WTI is sideways on a medium term time frame within 60-50. On the short term time frame it is again bearish and headed towards $50!

A move above $67 is needed to shift larger trend to bullish.
 
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  • Post #4
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  • Aug 15, 2019 9:31am Aug 15, 2019 9:31am
  •  vpn
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 124 Posts
Good to hear. I don't see 67 happening again save for war happening, which I don't really foresee on the horizon.
 
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  • Post #5
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  • Aug 15, 2019 10:22pm Aug 15, 2019 10:22pm
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Looking at WTI today, below the trendline, crude has once again gone inside a very small range of $55.32 and $53.97. A break of the range will give us next swing trade. I still think there is more downside in store. Look that Trender indicator on all 3 time frames point downward. (Trender is a Bloomberg indicator which is similar to parabolic sar). What do other guys think?

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  • Post #6
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  • Aug 16, 2019 2:46am Aug 16, 2019 2:46am
  •  C8H18
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Noob | 125 Posts
54.66 as we speak
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Aug 19, 2019 1:20am Aug 19, 2019 1:20am
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
There has been little change in crude outlook as of now, but it is providing better levels to enter short position. I am entering with SL above $55.67 and target $54.00

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  • Post #8
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  • Aug 19, 2019 2:07am Aug 19, 2019 2:07am
  •  C8H18
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Noob | 125 Posts
She's definitely looking like she's losing steam!
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  • Post #9
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  • Aug 19, 2019 9:16am Aug 19, 2019 9:16am
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Quoting C8H18
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She's definitely looking like she's losing steam! {image}
Ignored
Yeah but unfortunately I got stopped out. Will look to re-enter a short trade.
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Aug 19, 2019 12:07pm Aug 19, 2019 12:07pm
  •  vpn
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 124 Posts
I was thinking short too. Do you think this channel on the H4 looks legitimate?
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  • Post #11
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  • Aug 20, 2019 1:18am Aug 20, 2019 1:18am
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Quoting vpn
Disliked
I was thinking short too. Do you think this channel on the H4 looks legitimate?{image}
Ignored
Yeah absolutely and currently crude near the upper end of the channel. A down move is likely shortly and it appears that it is waiting for some trigger. Perhaps some news or API data later today.
 
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  • Post #12
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  • Aug 20, 2019 9:46am Aug 20, 2019 9:46am
  •  vpn
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 124 Posts
Cool - I ended up going limit short and my order was filled... we'll see how she does:
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  • Post #13
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  • Aug 20, 2019 12:57pm Aug 20, 2019 12:57pm
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Quoting vpn
Disliked
Cool - I ended up going limit short and my order was filled... we'll see how she does:{image}
Ignored
Good luck. Where have you kept stop?
 
 
  • Post #14
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  • Aug 20, 2019 2:46pm Aug 20, 2019 2:46pm
  •  C8H18
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Noob | 125 Posts
Quoting demontrade
Disliked
{quote} Yeah but unfortunately I got stopped out. Will look to re-enter a short trade.
Ignored
Were you able to re-enter and collect some profits? You had the set-up
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  • Post #15
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  • Edited 2:13am Aug 21, 2019 1:57am | Edited 2:13am
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Quoting C8H18
Disliked
{quote} Were you able to re-enter and collect some profits? You had the set-up {image}
Ignored
Yeah indeed I did but just a very small 20 ticks profit.

Looking ahead, crude got support yesterday at around 100-hour average which now is the fulcrum for short term and needs to break.

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  • Post #16
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  • Aug 21, 2019 2:46am Aug 21, 2019 2:46am
  •  C8H18
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Noob | 125 Posts
Good stuff! In and out at the right time! The bulls have been stampeding as of late
 
 
  • Post #17
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  • Aug 22, 2019 8:15am Aug 22, 2019 8:15am
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Crude is in some sort of an uptrend on the 30M chart, however that will break on a fall below $54.80. I would enter short there or on a rally towards $56.70

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  • Post #18
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  • Aug 22, 2019 1:22pm Aug 22, 2019 1:22pm
  •  auricforecas
  • Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Still a total mystery | 3,575 Posts
Quoting demontrade
Disliked
{quote} Yeah indeed I did but just a very small 20 ticks profit. Looking ahead, crude got support yesterday at around 100-hour average which now is the fulcrum for short term and needs to break. {image}
Ignored
Where are those screenshots from? That wouldn't be Bloomberg terminal by any chance?
As for market being locked etc.. I do not think we will see much action until tomorrows Powell's "kick in the nuts" speech...
Can you afford to take that chance?
 
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  • Post #19
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  • Aug 23, 2019 2:32am Aug 23, 2019 2:32am
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Quoting auricforecas
Disliked
{quote} Where are those screenshots from? That wouldn't be Bloomberg terminal by any chance? As for market being locked etc.. I do not think we will see much action until tomorrows Powell's "kick in the nuts" speech...
Ignored
Yeah that's Bloomberg terminal which I use along with Bloomberg proprietory indicator "Trender". Agree Powell speech today is hugely important.
 
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  • Post #20
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  • Aug 23, 2019 3:52pm Aug 23, 2019 3:52pm
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Crude had a huge selloff today, with a trigger which it was searching all week. Finally the trigger was China tariffs. It broke below its all important level of $54.80 and is now headed towards $51.0 - $50.50 which is where the next support lay. If that breaks, then an extremly sharp fall may be seen. However that's for later. For now enjoying the ride to $51.0 - $50.50

Look at the trender indicator across all timeframes is bearish

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