
Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates 573 replies
Technical Analysis of Energy Markets 68 replies
Live/Real Time Energy Trades 121 replies
Stocks - specifically the liquid energy sector 152 replies
Market Expectations:
Notes:
Recent EIA inventory data impact on Crude, Heating Oil, and Gasoline (CL, HO, RB respectively)
Aug 14th - Prices, after the initial knee-jerk reaction, eventually moved lower on a higher than expected crude oil inventories.
Notes:
Recent impact on Natural Gas (NG)
Recent impact on Crude (CL)
DislikedAPI inventory data - Aug 27th preview API Weekly Statistical Bulletin Recent impact on Crude (CL) Aug 20, 2019 {image} Aug 13, 2019 {image} Aug 6, 2019 {image} Jul...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Nice work ET! It usually creates a pretty big impact, but for some reason it didn't really do much last week. I'll be interested to see if we have a repeat of that tomorrow.Ignored
DislikedAs always my G.very informative and enjoy hearing your views more so around news centred events. Big shout out my man Keep it upIgnored
Forecasts
Recent impacts
Last week's preview shows the previous four reactions prior to last week, Aug 21st.
Aug 21st - How Crude, Gasoline, and Heating Oil were impacted last release.
Forecasts
The market consensus forecast is around 55B, although forecasts vary and range from the around 42B to a little over 60B.
Notes
We can continue to see Natural Gas storage build. It's not until closer to November when we begin to see some uncertainty in the data.
Previous Impact (view more prior impacts in last week's preview)
Aug 22nd
Recent Impacts
Aug 27 (more prior impacts here)
Forecast
Recent Impacts (view prior impacts here and here)
Last week the actual was almost in line with market expectations, therefore it had a relatively muted impact.
Forecasts
Recent Impacts (view here and here)
Last week's data showed a bigger than expected draw across the board. The reaction is evidence there could be some limited upside potential on bigger than expected draws (or long Crude).
DislikedNatural Gas Storage - Sept 5th Preview Natural Gas Storage Forecast General consensus is for a build in natural gas storage of around 77B vs 60B prior. Notes on this release here. Recent Impacts (view prior impacts here and here) Last week the actual was almost...Ignored
It generally doesn't trigger large moves in the energy market like it does in others, unless risk sentiment is affected. Tomorrow, the potential is there. Crude prices could move tomorrow, especially if growth fears creep up after the data is released. As I mentioned in the preview, be ready four hours later for Powell's event in Switzerland. Big day tomorrow!
August Impact
Last month's employment figures didn't have too much impact on crude. As displayed in the charts below (WTI and Natural Gas) impact was somewhat limited. The move that took place about 30 minutes later was related to Trump commenting on Chinese tariffs.