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Nat Gas anyone?

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  • Post #501
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  • Jan 29, 2021 3:15pm Jan 29, 2021 3:15pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,426 Posts
Quoting EventsTrader
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After last week's sell off in natural gas, it gapped up on the weekly open. With a warmer than expected US winter forecast predicted, there's not much supporting NG prices, outside of higher oil prices. I'm not sure what to expect this week, but it I wouldn't be surprised if we filled the gap. {image}
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It never filled the gap but not a very strong weak either (for being in the middle of winter. NatGas US storage data was very bearish but the decline started a little before that. Perhaps triggered some of the continuation. Again, higher oil prices might be supporting natgas atm.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • Post #502
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  • Feb 1, 2021 12:10pm Feb 1, 2021 12:10pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,426 Posts
We're seeing NatGas benefit from this winter storm hitting the US. Gapped up and still in rally-mode:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • Post #503
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  • Feb 4, 2021 1:28pm Feb 4, 2021 1:28pm
  •  bulltrap
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Patient | 357 Posts
Quoting EventsTrader
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We're seeing NatGas benefit from this winter storm hitting the US. Gapped up and still in rally-mode: {image}
Ignored
I used to have a feed of PJM contract prices at my old job. It might be interesting to see the rollover period on those contracts and if there were any significant moves out of the electricity sector. During the winter I prefer to look at electricity and nat gas together.

There are always huge opportunities to trade nat gas from about December-March.
careful not to step in a pile of it
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  • Post #504
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  • Edited at 3:18pm Feb 4, 2021 2:50pm | Edited at 3:18pm
  •  yieldjunkie
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
This may be a swing and a miss.. but I think it's likely we see this volatility continue and steadily increase over the next few years - particularly weather related and not just owing to cold snaps.

Natgas is the common marginal source of electricity generation and this volume seems prone to increase with the implementation of alternatives, as many alternatives (thinking wind, solar) will see more scheduled downtime or non-generation time than traditional sources.. and I don't believe we've reached anywhere near an inflection point as it relates to the cost of power storage versus firing up a natgas plant. Until that happens - I think we'll see a healthy increase in baseline volatility.
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  • Post #505
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  • Feb 5, 2021 3:06pm Feb 5, 2021 3:06pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,426 Posts
Cold US weather and higher crude prices continue to support natural gas prices. Finishing out a relatively strong week:
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  • Post #506
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  • Feb 17, 2021 11:42am Feb 17, 2021 11:42am
  •  yieldjunkie
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
Quoting bulltrap
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During the winter I prefer to look at electricity and nat gas together. There are always huge opportunities to trade nat gas from about December-March.
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This aged well!
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  • Post #507
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  • Feb 17, 2021 1:01pm Feb 17, 2021 1:01pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,426 Posts
NatGas (CME NG) continues higher after a gap up over the weekend and US getting slammed by the polar vortex. Rising crude prices hasn't hurt either.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
  • Post #508
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  • Last Post: Feb 19, 2021 2:51pm Feb 19, 2021 2:51pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,426 Posts
Natural gas (CME NG) closing the week right about where it opened (on the gap):
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