I just found this little gem of a site and wanted to introduce myself.
I've been working on an automated mechanical intraday trading system in C++ for three years now. I started with equities with no luck. Last year I modified my system to trade Forex.
In these last three years I've tested several entries. I have yet to find a pattern that is a good predictor of future direction. What I do is take an entry strategy, and test with a TP/SL of 10, 25 and 50 pips against the 21 pairs I track over 1 year of data. So far all systems have averaged 50% that the entry signal is right. Never has a single pair broken the 60% win/loss boundary.
Just yesterday I tested two entries highly recommended on this site. Both averaged 50%. I'll continue testing more from here, but at don't have much hope. If you do have an entry that "works", I'd love to test it.
As for what I'd really like from this site, is a study of exits. If my assumption is right that all entries in the short term are a coin flip as to the correct direction, then managing the exit is very important and I will contend more important than a good money management scheme.
I've never found trailing stops to work and have my doubts about a finding the right stop loss value. Currently I'm testing with a dynamic stop, one that takes into account volatility, and moves a take profit and a stop loss target in on the price, until the price crosses one or the other.
Please if you have any exit strategies, I'd like to test them. If there are yet undiscovered threads on the study of exits here, please point me in the right direction.
Thanks in advance,
Dan
I've been working on an automated mechanical intraday trading system in C++ for three years now. I started with equities with no luck. Last year I modified my system to trade Forex.
In these last three years I've tested several entries. I have yet to find a pattern that is a good predictor of future direction. What I do is take an entry strategy, and test with a TP/SL of 10, 25 and 50 pips against the 21 pairs I track over 1 year of data. So far all systems have averaged 50% that the entry signal is right. Never has a single pair broken the 60% win/loss boundary.
Just yesterday I tested two entries highly recommended on this site. Both averaged 50%. I'll continue testing more from here, but at don't have much hope. If you do have an entry that "works", I'd love to test it.
As for what I'd really like from this site, is a study of exits. If my assumption is right that all entries in the short term are a coin flip as to the correct direction, then managing the exit is very important and I will contend more important than a good money management scheme.
I've never found trailing stops to work and have my doubts about a finding the right stop loss value. Currently I'm testing with a dynamic stop, one that takes into account volatility, and moves a take profit and a stop loss target in on the price, until the price crosses one or the other.
Please if you have any exit strategies, I'd like to test them. If there are yet undiscovered threads on the study of exits here, please point me in the right direction.
Thanks in advance,
Dan
.