Virtue finds and chooses the mean.
Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
- Joined May 2005 | Status: Member | 1,494 Posts
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
TOP 100 best indicators: post good indicators here 646 replies
The Right Trade to Make If You Are Targeting $100 Oil, by Kathy Lien 1 reply
DislikedAlso, if it were to get to $100....Anwar protection would cease to exist...Ignored
Dislikedi disagree for one reason... OPEC does not want expensive oil!
what happened when oil hit $70 last year? everybody and their mother was trying to put vegetable oil in their car, hybrid became a fad, and bush declared the US is an oil crack addict LOL.
OPEC saw all of this and got scared shitless. its simple economics, when things get expensive people look for alternatives. nobody knows this better than OPEC. they want a goldilocks price, not too cheap that they leave money on the table, but not too expensive where they force people to develop oil alternatives. i believe this price is somewhere around $65.Ignored
Dislikedi disagree for one reason... OPEC does not want expensive oil!
what happened when oil hit $70 last year? everybody and their mother was trying to put vegetable oil in their car, hybrid became a fad, and bush declared the US is an oil crack addict LOL.
OPEC saw all of this and got scared shitless. its simple economics, when things get expensive people look for alternatives. nobody knows this better than OPEC. they want a goldilocks price, not too cheap that they leave money on the table, but not too expensive where they force people to develop oil alternatives. i believe this price is somewhere around $65.Ignored
DislikedI think he may mean (ANWR) Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. There is purported to be a lot of oil under that tundraIgnored
Dislikedyes great points nader! and if i remember correctly, the dollar was strong while you and me were making a killing shorting oil last year.
regarding the future of oil, i still think the best way to make money is on the short side. im nowhere near ready to short it now, but if i see some kind of sharp pullback im looking to do the same play as last year - ride it short through the stops!Ignored
DislikedMerlin & Nader: If you don't mind me asking, what brokerage are you trading crude with?Ignored
Dislikedi disagree for one reason... OPEC does not want expensive oil!
what happened when oil hit $70 last year? everybody and their mother was trying to put vegetable oil in their car, hybrid became a fad, and bush declared the US is an oil crack addict LOL.
OPEC saw all of this and got scared shitless. its simple economics, when things get expensive people look for alternatives. nobody knows this better than OPEC. they want a goldilocks price, not too cheap that they leave money on the table, but not too expensive where they force people to develop oil alternatives. i believe this price is somewhere around $65.Ignored
DislikedFunds converting US$ into crude. Crude trades in US$ and if it goes higher (assuming the funds are long) they get more US$. Not whats wrong with this picture?
That is if the object was to protect themselves from a declining US$.
Seems the better solution would be to trade against the US$ with..... currencies.Ignored
Dislikedthere is oil everywhere!! its just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. canadian oil sands are prefect example, with oil at a certain price it become profitable to process the sand. same thing applies to deep-sea drilling, because there is added technology cost when drilling that far down.
looking at oil as some fixed supply is a big mistake. why do we use oil in the first place? its certainly not the only source of energy (shit, i can clap my hands and create energy). we use it because its the cheapest and most practical source of energy. and when those qualities go away, so does its use.
now, there is another huge factor in all this, and that is infrastructure. the worlds infrastructure is setup to run on oil. even if we figure out how to make power with water, you still need cars that can run on water, and water-stations to replace gas-stations. so we will never see a sudden shift from oil, it will be a slow moving process. but last year we saw that process get started as alternate fuels became the buzz. OPEC saw this too, and they sprung into action, and i believe they will continue this trend.Ignored
DislikedBut OPEC have nothing to do to bring prices down to this level as they have several limitations related to production.Ignored
Disliked
you think OPEC cant control the price of oil? that is their purpose of existence!! thats like saying the BOJ cant control the price of the yen
production is only one tool they have, there are several more in their box. and who says they dont have "open market operations" like central banks do? OPEC is under no obligation to make their dealings public, they are a cartel!Ignored
Dislikedso this makes me wonder, is it really smart to trade with OPEC, or is the better move to trade against them? the answer i believe is twofold... trade with them short term, against them long term. what i mean is only short oil short term while i think OPEC is intervening, but long oil in the long term.Ignored
Disliked(added on edit)FWIW, Xinhua has reported that China's imports are up 18%+ in the first 8 months this year.Ignored
Dislikedalso on the fundamental side, you have all the oil producers NOT wanting oil to go any higher. why would the people selling oil not want high oil prices? well because thats when everyone starts using alternatives. they want oil high, but not too high that people start using alternatives (which is starting to happen right now, ie all the talk of putting corn in our gas tanks).Ignored
Dislikedi was just reading through some of my old calls on oil. its a funny thing these internets:
this one from jul 06 when oil was topping out at $78
guess my views havent changed muchIgnored