Watch for good long entries on Natural Gas - especially if price breaks below 2.5
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Do NOT tilt | 5,708 Posts
i'd put a buy at 2. seems like where there is most demand there. it's a nice round number rejected in the past. but i think the most it'll get to is fluctuate to $4. that's $20,000 profit lets say 4-6 months if not longer for 1 contract.
i'd stick to NQ lol...
i'd stick to NQ lol...
Working towards CME membership
- | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 135 Posts
{quote} Do you know which weather model traders tend to follow? GFS and Euro? I've always had a thing for meteorology so trading nat gas is right up my alley.
I always caution people about relying solely on the most popular methods when trading anything though. It is often not advisable to do the same thing everyone else does because you often end up a follower in the markets. Bigger money can be made by making a move or trade that is different than others and puts you ahead of the curve. The easiest way to make a confident move against the crowd is to notice relationships that other people don't.
{quote} I'll just say that the Euro models are more accurate and usually worth the wait. I'll also admit I only really dig into the gritty details of the winter weather forecasts in the northeast US. The impact of a change to expectations for a mild winter to a severe one or vice versa can really make things interesting.
I always caution people about relying solely on the most popular methods when trading anything though. It is often not advisable to do the same thing everyone else does because you often end up a follower in the markets. Bigger money can be made by making a move or trade that is different than others and puts you ahead of the curve. The easiest way to make a confident move against the crowd is to notice relationships that other people don't.
The reason I ask which models traders watch is to know what they’re making trading decisions based on. There could be an edge in scrutinizing where models differ, like if the Euro says one thing and CMC says another and I know the CMC is slightly more reliable under the circumstances.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
The reason I ask which models traders watch is to know what they’re making trading decisions based on. There could be an edge in scrutinizing where models differ, like if the Euro says one thing and CMC says another and I know the CMC is slightly more reliable under the circumstances.
I still find the concept very interesting so I’m going to look into it regardless.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
- | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 135 Posts
{quote} There could be an edge in scrutinizing where models differ, like if the Euro says one thing and CMC says another and I know the CMC is slightly more reliable under the circumstances.
Personally I will never know as much as I would like to by pure study alone. To take my analogy a bit farther, no matter how long I study the differences between a Phillip and flat head screwdriver I will never feel knowledgeable until I have tested them both on various screws etc with my bare hands. This is why I like to do a lot of testing in the markets with small sums of money before taking on real trades of a similar nature.
{quote} Come to think of it, this might be a tricky proposition. I bet some of these models are using machine learning so any edge that’s found won’t be very reliable.
Try not to let the academics hold you back from testing something. It is certainly an intimidating set of players in the market but there is no better way to learn how shave off your own gains than by experimenting in a smart way. I can tell that you have studied natural gas and have a good background to draw from so if you are not already testing a trading strategy why not start?
Any interest in trying to trade the storage data that is released tomorrow?