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Flying Dutchman

Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Does Size Matter ?
Well, the answer is subjective and depends on which side of the line you belong.
Always learning
! ! ! 88% Probabilities in your trading How about 94% ! ! !
(disclaimer...no matter the high probabilites YES they are true....you can still very very easily lose...why...Risk mgmt and YOU)

Well i poked my head in over on twitter and found some interesting things RE: Boxes , Al Brooks, Probabilities , Data

Just remember there is nothing new in trading...Just like Blues Box..just an old retread lol thats revamped to suit me.

First some context : Al Brooks trading the Opening Range....90% probabilities...Nothing new unless spit polished packaged up and
sold as a PHD mentorship for $1000 mth..with over 200 people currently on waiting list lol.... Sucker and his money easily parted !
Normally he goes over the probabilities in first slides of videos worth a quick look IMO always something to learn !

Inserted Video

Inserted Video

Inserted Video


Second Twitter just saw an interesting thread on the probabilities of the first 12 bars of the open...

Al Brooks vids he talks about the first 18 5m bars..

I have posted many charts the last few years and I will highlight the FIRST 5m bar that closes outside of the Box...SIGNAL then we
wait for a trigger in the direction of the signal candle... Following this ?

Now i've crunched the data myself over many many coffees backtesting manually each day...and making notes in my notebook...

But many are smarter than me and can use their computers for crunching data rather than just making money on a trading terminal

I do tho love the data... pssst don't mention it to the Rooo tho i don't want to blow a hole in his magical colored lines bullshit

But seriously check this out :

12 bar Box... 930-1030 NY equity Open... once Box is closed so AFTER 1030 a 5min close outside of box gives the signal in that direction...Now wait for an entry.
You will see some days of the week have much higher probabilities than others ...BTW Wednesdays are the worst days... That was actually what led me down the
path of Stacey Burke... 3day cycles... Wednesdays are quite often reversal days.. What day last week did I write about all losses....Wednesday...yes it still gets me.

OK to the DATA:
Worth a click to take a few minutes to read the posts and will post some of the highlights
https://twitter.com/AlgoTradevid/sta...95048925683939

Love the boxes
Blue
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The Best Loser Wins
Quoting bluesteele
! ! ! 88% Probabilities in your trading How about 94% ! ! !
Can't criticise someone who doesn't just talk, but done the walk as well and over a very long period.

If you can write 4 Books that are Best Sellers with some of the Top publishing Houses, that adds credence as well.

Plenty of Royalty cheques to look forward to each year.

Charging money for mentorships, that is where due diligence should come in, what are you getting , is all the information complete or in parts ?

How many parts and how long are you going to be taken for a ride ? What will it all cost ?

People are in a great deal of Rush, Instant Coffee, Instant Noodles, Fast Food, Oven Ready Deals. Be careful, your money may also disappear Fast.

As Mr. T has said there is plenty of Free Stuff out there, you must find it and adapt it, to your style & personality.
"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Can't criticise someone who doesn't just talk, but done the walk as well and over a very long period. If you can write 4 Books that are Best Sellers with some of the Top publishing Houses, that adds credence as well. Plenty of Royalty cheques to look forward to each year. Charging money for mentorships, that is where due diligence should come in, what are you getting , is all the information complete or in parts ? How many parts and how long are going to be taken for a ride ? What will it all cost ? People are in a great deal of Rush, Instant...
100% Agree Shabs.... No need to pay for courses...I believe there can be value in a mentor but they are very few in that category...
People see these High probability scenarios and think they have hit the goldmine...It takes a hell of alot of skill both execution and mental skill,

So so easy to lose...A high probability scenario does not equate to a high win rate...apples and oranges. The 88% is Hype Marketing nothing more.
88% probability correlates to nothing without a whole lot more added to it,,,,

Heres a chart of Oil last week... two examples one of a short signal one a long signal...Where do you short? where do you go long ?
These where do you short and where do you go long are what the market will give you almost every single day so they sprinkle some ICT
in the mix and they add a fancy paid for "Lens" that gives you most likely retrace times/areas and target times/areas... blah blah blah...

How about learn how to actually trade for yourself....

Plug n play tho people soak that right up like they have just invented the Wheel lol...

OK Oil chart....wheres the 80-90% setup ? hmmm hard to see isnt it.... Wheres the meat of the move? I think its the ones I took lol.
No need for probabilites of the opening range...Just trade what the market is showing... Simple structure... Its called trading.

Cheers !
Blue

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I think the below charts makes alot more sense ..But I like simple things.....
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The Best Loser Wins
trading forex is the hardest easy money you will ever make.
without patience how can you be a trader?
Quoting Steverino832
trading forex is the hardest easy money you will ever make.
Aint that the whole truth and nothing but the truth !

And the learning never ever stops... ROR Risk of RUin is always lurking in the bushes ,,, every single time we open one single trade
that ROR monster is laying in wait... He never leaves you.

You can be on top of the world and lose it all faster than fast.

Which brings me to something I saw yesterday on gasp Twitter or should i say "X" haha...
I follow Corey Mitchell on there whom led me to Steven Goldstein (Brit ) who does AlphaMind Podcast great trader interviews,,
Coreys was outstanding...A story all should listen too,

SO I saw Stevens post yesterday saying he wil be doing a podcast with this trader whom just wrote a book... A real loser lol... (hint,,thats good)

Sounds like he had a hard time making some easy money

Cheers !

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The Best Loser Wins
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Aint that the whole truth and nothing but the truth ! And the learning never ever stops... ROR Risk of RUin is always lurking in the bushes ,,, every single time we open one single trade that ROR monster is laying in wait... He never leaves you. You can be on top of the world and lose it all faster than fast. Which brings me to something I saw yesterday on gasp Twitter or should i say "X" haha... I follow Corey Mitchell on there whom led me to Steven Goldstein (Brit ) who does AlphaMind Podcast great trader interviews,, Coreys was...
Story as sad as Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest traders of his time.

While Livermore made his riches during the Great Depression, he was quick to lose his fortune, which many speculate was because of his extravagant lifestyle. by 1934, not a lot was left from his $100 million. soon he declared bankruptcy, had his second divorce, and in 1940 he died by suicide.

He is considered a pioneer of day trading and was the basis for the main character of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a best-selling book by Edwin Lefèvre.

He enjoyed his money whilst it lasted, $100 million is probably over a billion in todays' money at least.

As George Best legendary footballer said after declaring bankruptcy : "I spent all my money on Booze, Birds & Fast Cars, the rest I just squandered"
"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Story as sad as Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest traders of his time. While Livermore made his riches during the Great Depression, he was quick to lose his fortune, which many speculate was because of his extravagant lifestyle. by 1934, not a lot was left from his $100 million. soon he declared bankruptcy, had his second divorce, and in 1940 he died by suicide. He is considered a pioneer of day trading and was the basis for the main character of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a best-selling book by Edwin Lefèvre. He enjoyed his money...
Great story Jesse ! Your last quote reminds me of this similar one,,,
"I spent 90% of my money on Booze and Women, the rest I wasted "

ouch has some truth there lol
The Best Loser Wins
What would you do if you were at the BoJ

Have yet another yen Bank Holiday today
(what, again !!!!!!!!! ffs hahaaa )

ps and just guessin', but I reckon the roundup review chart might look exactly the same, as they always do

Trade well folks.
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} ...Just trade what the market is showing... Simple structure... Its called trading.
Beauty is you can be a buyer in the morning and a seller in the afternoon or vice versa in the same day.

Make some or give it all back at the end of the day.

You need to have some chart/map reading skills at least to spot market turns about to happen, where they are likely to happen

and what action are you going to do to engage when it happens.

Edit: The Oil charts posted show some good Structure Trading, when sometimes the Boxes are confusing.
"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Great story Jesse ! Your last quote reminds me of this similar one,,, "I spent 90% of my money on Booze and Women, the rest I wasted " ouch has some truth there lol
Moral of the story is don't die a Poor Rich Man. Life is for Living not Accumulating & Hoarding.
"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Moral of the story is don't die a Poor Rich Man. Life is for Living not Accumulating & Hoarding.
indeed, well said!
without patience how can you be a trader?
Quoting TimeTells
What would you do if you were at the BoJ Have yet another yen Bank Holiday today (what, again !!!!!!!!! ffs hahaaa ) ps and just guessin', but I reckon the roundup review chart might look exactly the same, as they always do Trade well folks.
The Holidays can often be the best time to trade............Should never overlook it.
"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} The Holidays can often be the best time to trade............Should never overlook it.
I love 'em
While the mice BoJ are away, the market maker will play

Yep, business as usual it would seem. A coupla' Bermuda's thrown in. And running stations to stations as they often will do.

Day is done, Tuesday awaits

all the best, for the rest of it folks

.
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Quoting bluesteele
! ! ! 88% Probabilities in your trading How about 94% ! ! ! (disclaimer...no matter the high probabilites YES they are true....you can still very very easily lose...why...Risk mgmt and YOU) Well i poked my head in over on twitter and found some interesting things RE: Boxes , Al Brooks, Probabilities , Data Just remember there is nothing new in trading...Just like Blues Box..just an old retread lol thats revamped to suit me. First some context : Al Brooks trading the Opening Range....90% probabilities...Nothing new unless spit polished packaged up...
Blue..you are a man of stats.
If there's a high possibility of Wednesdays not working to plan...what about taking these days off? Come back refreshed and supercharged for Thurs/Fri..Scale up slightly on the other 4 trading days? Wildlife Wednesdays !! Feed the garden invaders
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Blue..you are a man of stats. If there's a high possibility of Wednesdays not working to plan...what about taking these days off? Come back refreshed and supercharged for Thurs/Fri..Scale up slightly on the other 4 trading days? Wildlife Wednesdays !! Feed the garden invaders
Excellent point DM !
We dont need to trade everyday... My cough cough excuse is that I have adapted / meshed Stacey Burkes methods with mine and Wednesdays can be big days.
The last wednesday with my mindset that day or lack thereof I think it was me rather than the day...AM i sure not really tbh...but its my best guess...

I should say I have improved my Wednesday results since meshing Burkeys methods and have actually done well.....

Almost tho like the "Old wednesday" thing haunts me a bit lol...

But But But I 100% agree....we dont need to trade everyday...Patience is a virtue sitting on the hands waiting for the best setups.
And I do struggle with that

I do love the sound of Wildlife Wednesdays haha!....My neighbour has a huge garden shhhh....probably littered with peanut shells lol....oops
My theory is by me heavily feeding the wildlife it keeps them out of the neighbours garden !!! BOOM

ANYhooo back to the charts for me, bagged a 30pter Dow off the open,,,flat now waiting for the first hour to print High and Low
and re evaluate next move

Cheers
Blue
The Best Loser Wins
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Excellent point DM ! We dont need to trade everyday... My cough cough excuse is that I have adapted / meshed Stacey Burkes methods with mine and Wednesdays can be big days.
My new favourite saying:

"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
Some tougher trading today...
Grossed around 135 pts on the Dow ..was all I traded. Missed an OIL long off the 8am NY session start but thats ok...
Scaled down to 20% after first trade. so truly netted around 50 full pts.

Some big bad 50,60,70 pip candles around the equity open....like playing with fire.

Very focused today and consider myself lucky so stopped trading just before 10NY 7am my time...

Id rather look at the birds anyways !

Have a Great day all
The Best Loser Wins
Quoting OAPDave
Update on a previous Dax post Viewing the Video would have helped give you a basic, would save a thousand words Shabs were is your last post gone ? {image}
When you post charts such as post #9336 with No explanations, vs a chart TT posted which had, I couldn't see what you were talking about.

Do your charts not just Curve -Fit as there are so mnay settings you could vary as you have your own preferred settings ?

No hard levels shown where price could react to, even if no MML lines were there ?

The Oversold / Overbought zones, if there are such things, are subjective and painted after the reversal occurs ?

I deleted my post as I thought you might take it the wrong way, No criticism intended, but without annotations or commentary they are just coloured charts to me.
"The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself"
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