US CPI m/m

Hotter than expected CPI (as food costs reignite) and ugly jobless claims data (somewhat affected by Hurricane Helene) signal stagflationary pressures may be returning... chart ...sparked some initial chaos across asset classes, pushing rate-cut expectations lower (hawkish) for 2024 but higher (dovish) for 2025... chart Stocks ended lower (with Small Caps the biggest loser) despite a late-day panic-bid into the close... chart NVDA is holding it all together... chart As VIX increased (now dramatically decoupled from stocks) ...

The September US consumer price inflation data is hotter than predicted by a tenth of a percentage point for both headline and core (0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month respectively). This is the second consecutive 0.3% MoM print for core inflation, which as the chart below shows is not a great look. We need to average 0.17% MoM over 12 months to deliver 2% year-on-year inflation and the US economy is tracking higher than that right now – the black line marks 0.17%. The details show that energy prices did fall as expected, but food was much ...

U.S. inflation last month reached its lowest point since February 2021, clearing the way for another Federal Reserve rate cut and adding to the stream of encouraging economic data that has emerged in the final weeks of the presidential campaign. The consumer price index rose 2.4% in September from 12 months earlier, slightly higher than the 2.3% expected, but lower than the 2.5% year-over-year increase in August, according to economists surveyed by FactSet, a data provider. A reading that low, likely reflecting lower gas prices and ...

September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as the latest test of whether inflation will continue to ease as the Federal Reserve debates its next interest rate decision. The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.3%, a deceleration from August's 2.5% annual gain in prices, which marked the lowest annual rate since early 2021. Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.1%, down from the 0.2% increase seen in August. On a "core" basis, which strips ...

The headline CPI has been on the right path towards aiming for the Fed's inflation target of 2%. That said, the core is struggling to budge. Let's dig in.

US inflation probably moderated at the end of the third quarter, reassuring a Federal Reserve that’s shifting more of its policy focus toward shielding the labor market. The consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in September, its smallest gain in three months. Compared with a year earlier, the CPI probably rose 2.3%, the sixth-straight slowdown and the tamest since early 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue its CPI report on Thursday. The gauge excluding the volatile food and energy categories, which provides a better ...

The August 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and 2.5% year-over-year (YoY), the smallest annual increase since February 2021. There was an unexpected rise in core inflation in August that was driven by a strong increase in shelter and transport services prices, which we do not think will be sustained. Regardless, the big picture is that this data represents something of a "draw" – it doesn't suggest a reacceleration of inflation, but it doesn't meaningfully progress the core disinflation narrative ...