Hi everyone.
I have been working on something for quite some time and want to start sharing my trading.
For anyone who has followed my posts, you will know that I always practice on a live account, and I am quite happy to share the nuts and bolts, the good and the bad. Over the years I have been reasonably profitable, but nothing that has really pleased me.
After finally cracking offline charts and understanding the massive world in front of me, I have been working with Mean renko charts, matched with a firm plan around trade management, and aggressive money management, I believe that I have combined the best of all worlds which will maximise profits and remove a lot of risk.
My forward testing back testing (haha!), which is basically running forward through historical charts with the future blind, to replicate actual trading, I have now come up with the results purely on the Dow Futures market. Current testing shows something similar on other markets, and this is what the statistics show:
124 trades
70 winners
2 Break even trades
56% win ratio
If you don't think that is particularly impressive... wait one second and read on....
biggest pip gain from one single trade - 1410 (that is ACTUAL PIPS, NOT 141.1 pips... The Dow does not have decimal places!)
biggest pip loss from one single trade -135
Average win 321 pips
Average Loss 97 pips
Average Risk reward is c. 1:3
Total pips lost: 5051
Total pips gained: 22483
And the important bit (as quite frankly the above figures are arbitrary to this figure....)
Based on trading Dow Futures only... using 0.01 lots (which equates to $0.05 per pip, or point):
Start balance: $500
End Balance: $4288.25
approx. 750% balance increase
This is the equity graph over time:
This was built up over a long time, a couple of years worth, but that equates to about 1-3 trades per week on average depending on what happens on the chart and what happens during the week, news events etc.
One last thing, I have a trading plan for this, but it is not optimised yet. The average loss is around 135 pips but this is based on a set and forget stop loss until a HL or LH is produced which is when the SL is moved. As it is, I will be testing what happens if I move the trade to BE after 50 pips is hit, or 100 pips is hit, or something along those lines. The figures show no preservation of winning trades, some that can go up as high as 400 pips, and then turn around and go to a full loss of c. 100 pips... a 500 pip turnaround is pretty hard to take! However in my testing, if the trade goes up, and goes past the entry point, I can not remember anyone of these trades going to be a winner.
That is of course not to say that some trades - for whatever reason, simply go against you as soon as you enter the trade and go to full loss... they are not uncommon, but easily managed with the decent risk reward and also averaging in as the trade progresses...
I will start sharing trades as I enter them... it is a very simple method, but the money management is the real powerhouse behind it as well as the trade management...
My Trade explorer is up and running, so you will be able to see all the trades... one thing though, the DOW futures are not recorded in the trade explorer as pips, only as a monetary figure, although I will be keeping a running tally for myself as I trade!
Average trade time could be anywhere between a day to a month depending on the trade progressing.
Let me know if you are interested in hearing more.
I have been working on something for quite some time and want to start sharing my trading.
For anyone who has followed my posts, you will know that I always practice on a live account, and I am quite happy to share the nuts and bolts, the good and the bad. Over the years I have been reasonably profitable, but nothing that has really pleased me.
After finally cracking offline charts and understanding the massive world in front of me, I have been working with Mean renko charts, matched with a firm plan around trade management, and aggressive money management, I believe that I have combined the best of all worlds which will maximise profits and remove a lot of risk.
My forward testing back testing (haha!), which is basically running forward through historical charts with the future blind, to replicate actual trading, I have now come up with the results purely on the Dow Futures market. Current testing shows something similar on other markets, and this is what the statistics show:
124 trades
70 winners
2 Break even trades
56% win ratio
If you don't think that is particularly impressive... wait one second and read on....
biggest pip gain from one single trade - 1410 (that is ACTUAL PIPS, NOT 141.1 pips... The Dow does not have decimal places!)
biggest pip loss from one single trade -135
Average win 321 pips
Average Loss 97 pips
Average Risk reward is c. 1:3
Total pips lost: 5051
Total pips gained: 22483
And the important bit (as quite frankly the above figures are arbitrary to this figure....)
Based on trading Dow Futures only... using 0.01 lots (which equates to $0.05 per pip, or point):
Start balance: $500
End Balance: $4288.25
approx. 750% balance increase
This is the equity graph over time:
This was built up over a long time, a couple of years worth, but that equates to about 1-3 trades per week on average depending on what happens on the chart and what happens during the week, news events etc.
One last thing, I have a trading plan for this, but it is not optimised yet. The average loss is around 135 pips but this is based on a set and forget stop loss until a HL or LH is produced which is when the SL is moved. As it is, I will be testing what happens if I move the trade to BE after 50 pips is hit, or 100 pips is hit, or something along those lines. The figures show no preservation of winning trades, some that can go up as high as 400 pips, and then turn around and go to a full loss of c. 100 pips... a 500 pip turnaround is pretty hard to take! However in my testing, if the trade goes up, and goes past the entry point, I can not remember anyone of these trades going to be a winner.
That is of course not to say that some trades - for whatever reason, simply go against you as soon as you enter the trade and go to full loss... they are not uncommon, but easily managed with the decent risk reward and also averaging in as the trade progresses...
I will start sharing trades as I enter them... it is a very simple method, but the money management is the real powerhouse behind it as well as the trade management...
My Trade explorer is up and running, so you will be able to see all the trades... one thing though, the DOW futures are not recorded in the trade explorer as pips, only as a monetary figure, although I will be keeping a running tally for myself as I trade!
Average trade time could be anywhere between a day to a month depending on the trade progressing.
Let me know if you are interested in hearing more.