The Market pays you to be disciplined
At what lot size/account size do you have scale issues? 39 replies
Which would you prefer: increasing lot size or TP size? 21 replies
Lot size, contract size, max position ? 1 reply
BUY run profit 1 lot, SELL LIMIT 2 LOT down again n BUY 1 lot - EA Reqd 5 replies
Help: Need code to increase lot size per $1000 increase in account 4 replies
Disliked6. This was a completely random walk coin toss with a margin of error of less than 1/100,000 of 1 percent pure random.
7. I conclude that the reason that this is profitable even for a random coin toss is because this is taking advantage of very short term trends in random data. It is betting more when there is multiple heads and less when there is not and is stopping each of the sessions at a 8:1 reward to risk ratio.
8. This would suggest that there are periods of non randomness in larger areas of random data and would also suggest that increasing...Ignored
DislikedScott, I guess you may never see my post here, as I note that this thread is old and you haven't visited the forum for several months. But I will proceed anyway.
I don't understand your points 6, 7 and 8.
'Trends' will occur in random-walk data as a matter of course, i.e. sequences of heads or tails in a fair coin toss. But (and assuming I understand gaming theory correctly) not in such a way that an MM system could exploit them profitably. The logic being this: in a 'perfect' 50/50 random walk, every trial is independent, hence every HH or TT...Ignored
Disliked2 things :
1) why are you reviving an old dead thread? odd.
2) my cursory read of the first post suggests to me that his results are probably spot-on and perfectly correct due to :
a) there is no negative edge in flipping a coin, unlike the zeroes in roulette and spread in retail forex.
b) he is cutting his winners, and cutting his losers. he isn't just running 4 million flips and counting up the final tally. there are going to be times where he wins and loses and grinds away to a losing 'game' where he resets back to the original stake sizing....Ignored
DislikedNub,
Thanks for your response. I stumbled on this thread fortuitously, and as 'casino-type math' is a pet topic of mine, couldn't resist adding my 2c. I know this topic's been covered many times before........
I have great respect for Scott; we exchanged many posts and PMs back in the earlier days of FF (c 2007).
I agree 100% with your point about there being no negative edge in a coin toss (unlike FX's spread and roulette's zero). But a 50/50 event should generate zero expectancy, no matter what MM is used. I originally believed (actually,...Ignored
DislikedHi,
suppose you have an ea with win/lose ratio above 50%
and high expectency
is it Better 2 increase lot size after win or after loss?
i do not mean double lot size like martingale
it is very risky,
i mean increasing it by 20% or so
please vote above ^^^^^Ignored
DislikedI created a coin toss indicator that has a margin of error of less than 1/100,000 of 1 percent randomness in 100 million coin tosses. (See screen shot)
By taking the Balance and dividing it in half and only using half of the balance to risk, and then setting the bet size as 100 percent of the half to risk, and by placing a full buy bet of 1 bet if the previous coin toss was heads, or placing a 1/2 buy bet of 0.5 if the previous coin toss was tails AND placing a limit of >= 200 for a max profit or a max limit of >= 25 for...Ignored
Disliked1) trade small 2) no SL Scenario: you have 2 open trades: 3) lucky you you have winner a) keep it, close it, add to it ... it's a winner you are making some $$ b) do it again 4) back luck your other trade is now down 500 pips a) Use every reversal to reduce position. b) Lucky you, you waited it out and you bought at a reversal. Up 100 pips ==> close for 100 pips profit and close a 100 pips loss = loss 400 pips. Start again at 3)Ignored
DislikedHi, suppose you have an ea with win/lose ratio above 50% and high expectency is it Better 2 increase lot size after win or after loss? i do not mean double lot size like martingale it is very risky, i mean increasing it by 20% or so please vote above ^^^^^Ignored