It feels like this is one of the worst times to be making any long term decision.
It is easy to see on a monthly chart how polarized the market is towards
the Yen, Aud, Chf, and Cad, and how grim hopes are for the Eur, Usd, and Gbp. Now this would have been a good play, had I known about FX in 2008, and would have been holding out those same positions until now... but I didn't.
Historically, the largest opportunities occur for only a few people, when most other people are wrong.
If I were looking for some long term security, it seems like the reasonable thing to do would be to put my money in the Yen, Aud, Chf, and Cad, but the truth is that..
all bubbles pop.
Not to say that all of those currencies are bubbles, but this is a very important time in the future of the economic world, or at least that is the picture that has been painted by the financial world. It's not just ho-hum, things are up, and things are down... The US, Europe, and the UK are all in desperate situations financially which could respectively spell their ends. But I am going to guess that the western world financial system is not going to collapse..
so my point is... is anyone else considering progressively scaling into counter trend trades on these pairs and waiting for the massive unraveling that could potentially allow me to retire by 23/24? Not that I have taken any positions yet, but I find it psychologically hard to buy at a multi-year high or sell at the bottom..
Or am I wrong, and we will just watch the Eur, Usd, and Gbp sit at their lowest levels in years against the other majors and fart around for a few years. Or am I doubly wrong and an idiot for even betting against such blatant fundamental weakness / strength - Will we see a continued rush for another few years? I don't know. I try to keep in mind where my news comes from, and what is their objective. But if the Us starts hiking rates, and carry trades unwind, I think it could be a whole different ballpark..
This certainly isn't a "trend is your friend" philosophy, more like a "wish I saw the US housing market collapse before it did" philosophy.
Any feedback or thoughts are welcome!
It is easy to see on a monthly chart how polarized the market is towards
the Yen, Aud, Chf, and Cad, and how grim hopes are for the Eur, Usd, and Gbp. Now this would have been a good play, had I known about FX in 2008, and would have been holding out those same positions until now... but I didn't.
Historically, the largest opportunities occur for only a few people, when most other people are wrong.
If I were looking for some long term security, it seems like the reasonable thing to do would be to put my money in the Yen, Aud, Chf, and Cad, but the truth is that..
all bubbles pop.
Not to say that all of those currencies are bubbles, but this is a very important time in the future of the economic world, or at least that is the picture that has been painted by the financial world. It's not just ho-hum, things are up, and things are down... The US, Europe, and the UK are all in desperate situations financially which could respectively spell their ends. But I am going to guess that the western world financial system is not going to collapse..
so my point is... is anyone else considering progressively scaling into counter trend trades on these pairs and waiting for the massive unraveling that could potentially allow me to retire by 23/24? Not that I have taken any positions yet, but I find it psychologically hard to buy at a multi-year high or sell at the bottom..
Or am I wrong, and we will just watch the Eur, Usd, and Gbp sit at their lowest levels in years against the other majors and fart around for a few years. Or am I doubly wrong and an idiot for even betting against such blatant fundamental weakness / strength - Will we see a continued rush for another few years? I don't know. I try to keep in mind where my news comes from, and what is their objective. But if the Us starts hiking rates, and carry trades unwind, I think it could be a whole different ballpark..
This certainly isn't a "trend is your friend" philosophy, more like a "wish I saw the US housing market collapse before it did" philosophy.
Any feedback or thoughts are welcome!