- | Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 440 Posts
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
Maths help needed pls... 8 replies
Maths (ratio) problem 16 replies
Do i need to be a maths genius? 12 replies
Stupid maths 19 replies
DislikedMy mind is on holiday so I can't figure it out but I think you are wrong. In the California Super Lotto the odds of picking 5 of 5 correctly out of 47 numbers is 1,592,937 to 1. My logic is based on this web site.Ignored
DislikedThe website says pick 5 of 47, then 1 of 27 for the mega number.
I'm getting 47*46*45*44*43*27 = 4,969,960,000. One in about 5 billion.
They say the lottery is just a tax on those that are bad at math.Ignored
I copied this off another website.
QuoteDisliked1/40 × 1/39 × 1/38 × 1/37 × 1/36 = 1/78960960
So, at this point, your odds of winning are 1 in 78960960. But, since you can choose your winning numbers in any order, your chances of winning are somewhat better than this. Your chance betters by the number of different ways that a sequence of 5 numbers can be written down, which for 5 numbers is 5! (5 factorial) or 120. Divide 78960960 by 120 to account for this, to get 658008.
In other words, there are 120 different ways that the 5 numbers you choose can be filled out on your lottery ticket--if you choose your 5 numbers correctly, any of these ways will make a winning ticket.
DislikedYes, you are.
In lottery order is not required.
Let's take another bite.
On a 50:50 win/lose basis, how many trades it takes when a straight 6-time loss will likely to happen?Ignored
Disliked1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/12 chance of that streak happening.
So out of 12 strings of 6 trades, it should happen once, statistically.
That would be 72 trades. If your win/loss is 50/50, and you make 72 trades, you will have a 6 loss streak in there somewhere.
Check my math, JT, am I right?Ignored
DislikedVery often you get divergence between an indicator (such as CCI, RSI, stoch) and price. Price goes up and makes a higher peak, the indicator goes down and makes a lower peak.
If the indicator is just a moving average, how could this be?
It cannot, it's mathematically impossible.Ignored
QuoteDislikedOr some little guy inside your computer drawing stuff you don't understand..
QuoteDisliked
It is mathematically POSSIBLE because if you cross a faster MA with a slower MA and subtract the difference; then when the price is moving in the correct direction but at the rate that is slower than it was previously, the longer MA will "catch up" and will lead to divergence..
QuoteDisliked
but then again, why bother learning math..
The probability questions seemed to have a "memory bias" in that the coin flip or whatever you are doing has no memory if it flipped heads or tails last time, so the probability is the same.. and streaks will happen for and against you, you don't know when, and you don't know for how long..
I programmed a roulette wheel into software, and ran streak analysis.. (this is the reason why I use to get kicked out of casinos)...
I do a million runs against the wheel at a time; some win, some lose, long term, nothing I can do to beat the 5.26% advantage the house has over me..
So most who don't know math, aren't factoring in the bid/ask overhead and how that wrecks havoc on your calculations and shifts your win/loss graphs down drastically; especially in lower timeframes..
I like this question to "how important is it to know programming?" You can win without programming, but it's difficult.. and again, nobody seems to be answering the most important questions of all, which is:
If you can give yourself and advantage, no matter how slight, why wouldn't you? Answer, because you are lazy and stupid..
DislikedI don't know if that is right. You have a 50% chance of losing any one trade, so you need to multiply the odds of losing by 6 to obtain the probability of a string of 6 losses (or wins).
1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/64, not 1/12
andersenwsIgnored
DislikedYou're right. Lack of sleep/shooting from the hip got me again. 2*2*2*2*2*2=64. duh.
There are 64 possible outcomes (sequences of 6 trades), one of which is 6 losers in a row. odds are 1/64.
So if you do 64 strings of 6 trades (384 trades) then you should have 6 losers in a row somewhere in there.Ignored
DislikedThat makes sense. But that doesn't guarantees that we will not experience more than 6 losers in a row, right ? If we do 128 strings of 6 trades .. we may have 12 losers in a row, etc etc ....
The question is, will our equity survive that 12/24/36 losers in a row (if it ever happens) ?Ignored