Relax and be happy.
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It’s our job to trade "Futures" not "Histories", by Joe Ross 7 replies
DislikedNever said that. I said that the normal state of the economy is expansion. Besides, what's happening now is temporary. Things will turn and the norman state will exist again.
Things look bad now, but they are not staying that way. The normal state is still expansion. That doesn't mean the economy can't exist in an "abnormal state'-it does occasionally.
The bottom will be hit when house prices fall and demand picks up. The inventory overhang will work down-that will be the place to buy again and it will happen before the economy comes out of the malaise because housing leads the economy into and out of recession.Ignored
DislikedNewstrader, yes you are correct, the "normal state of the economy is expansion". There is only one small problem that we are dealing with now. We are entering a Grand SuperCycle Bear stage, no one alive had seen it, yes the one that runs for centuries, yes there will be periods when the carry would work, but those are going to be rallies in the overall down market. .... I hope that I'm wrong, but just to show you how strongly I believe in this, I moved to Russia, after living in LA, sunny Cal for 20 years, sold houses, investment properties, my ranch, bussiness, everything... These convictions are not based on a figment of my imagination but on hard facts.Ignored
Quoting NewstraderFXDislikedNever said that. I said that the normal state of the economy is expansion. Besides, what's happening now is temporary. Things will turn and the norman state will exist again.
Things look bad now, but they are not staying that way. The normal state is still expansion. That doesn't mean the economy can't exist in an "abnormal state'-it does occasionally.
The bottom will be hit when house prices fall and demand picks up. The inventory overhang will work down-that will be the place to buy again and it will happen before the economy comes out of the malaise because housing leads the economy into and out of recession.Ignored
DislikedI assume you have moved to Russia because you perceive that part of the world to be relatively immune to, or maybe just less likely to suffer from, the effects of the GSCB stage? Are there warm and sunny parts in Russia?
IMHaCO economic expansion on its own does nothing for forex rates. The Yen is suffering even though the Japanese economy is expanding, the problem is that other economies are expanding a lot faster. Until this year the US economy has blitzed ahead, but Cable is around 2 and has been around 2 for a long time, heck it was only 2.4 back in my teens (whenever that was).
Inflation is the curse of the 'Haves'. The 'Have-nots' love inflation even if they don't realise it because it erodes their debts. Inflation also erodes the value of money and hence the Haves don't like it and neither do central governments. However a little inflation is a good thing because it weeds-out the poor performers and leaves the better businesses to really shine, and that drives the stock markets and any leveraged or derived growth instruments.
There comes a point when the glittering mega-economies become way too pricey for their ordinary citizens to be able to afford to live comfortably and a decline sets in. A smart person such as gene22 (I hope so for his sake anyway) can step sideways into the up-coming or left-behind economic zones that will flourish whilst the rest of us struggle.
Think this is all vapour-ware? The last economic and vibrant colossus (apart from the British that is ) to bite the dust and not recover even today was the Roman Empire. The only civilization that I am aware of which appears to have come full-circle is the Chinese, and that has taken a goodly few years.Ignored
DislikedThe Yen, because of the carry trade, is a proxy for expansion and investor confidence but the relationship is inverse. The reason is because as traders buy into equity markets, they buy into carry trades. That forces the Yen DOWN vs. the high yielding currencies.
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DislikedHi Primate, well there are sunny parts in Russia, but i currently live in Sankt-Petersburg, that's where i came from 20 years ago. There were several factors, I started seeing the bubble back in 2004, sold everythinh off in the middle of 2006 on the last spike up, got married to a girl from Sankt-Petersburg, was intoduced to enormous opportunities here through "family ties", and witnessing everyday the shenanigans in the econ reports, fraud in the financial sector, etc... just got discusted with all of it and weighted my options. Moved here, the trading hours are great its GMT+3, I have a lot of free time, perfect schedule, great food. The only part that sucks is the weather,especially now. Not a big deal for a few years, and then somewhere in the tropics.Ignored
DislikedActually, I'm looking in to some yacht designs now, it takes 2-4 years to have a custom yacht designed and built, perfect time to start now.
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