Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Profit opportunities can indeed arise during these events, but it is crucial to approach them with caution and appropriate risk management. Traders often use strategies such as waiting for release to settle before taking positions or using options to mitigate potential losses in case the market moves against their expectations. Overall, while economic releases like NFP can provide opportunities, it is important to remember that trading always involves risk and it is not possible to guarantee profit.

Yep, the question openly seem simple
From my perspective, the price movement is possible to be foreseen because the market usually works on certain patterns.
If you will take a particular asset, and then choose like W1 timeframe, then you will notice that the price is bouncing up and down, encountering resistance from both bears and bulls.
However, you may also behold a trendline, bearish or bullish, doesn't matter. And trendlines oftentimes hint traders that it's the right time to enter trading in the direction the trend has.
I realize that I outline simple facts, but I hope you understand what I mean. Market = patterns (besides drastic turmoils because of politics).

Forex price movement is the change in the value of one currency relative to another over time. Forex traders try to anticipate and profit from these movements by buying or selling currencies. There are different methods and tools that traders can use to forecast forex price movement, such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis, relative economic strength, econometric model, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, and balance of payments theory.

Fundamental analysis is a method that involves studying the economic indicators, monetary policies, and political developments of different countries to assess their impact on the currency values. For example, if a country has strong economic growth, low inflation, and stable political situation, its currency is likely to appreciate against other currencies. Conversely, if a country has weak economic performance, high inflation, and political instability, its currency is likely to depreciate.

Technical analysis is a method that uses historical price patterns, trends, and indicators to identify potential trading opportunities and predict future price movements. Technical analysts use various tools such as charts, trend lines, moving averages, oscillators, and Fibonacci retracements to analyze the price behavior and find support and resistance levels. For example, if a currency pair is in an uptrend, technical analysts may look for buying opportunities near the support level or the moving average. Similarly, if a currency pair is in a downtrend, technical analysts may look for selling opportunities near the resistance level or the moving average.

Relative economic strength is a method that compares the economic growth and performance of different countries to determine which currency will appreciate or depreciate against another. This method is based on the assumption that a country with a stronger economy will have a higher demand for its currency and a lower supply of foreign currencies. For example, if the US economy is growing faster than the Eurozone economy, the US dollar is expected to appreciate against the euro.

Econometric model is a method that uses mathematical and statistical models to incorporate various factors and variables that affect the exchange rates. These models can be complex and require a lot of data and assumptions. For example, an econometric model may include variables such as interest rates, inflation rates, trade balance, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, consumer confidence index, and political risk index. The model then estimates how these variables influence the exchange rate and forecasts the future values.

Purchasing power parity is a method that is based on the idea that identical goods in different countries should have the same price after adjusting for the exchange rate. This method forecasts that the exchange rate will change to reflect the difference in inflation rates between two countries. For example, if the inflation rate in India is higher than the inflation rate in the US, then the Indian rupee is expected to depreciate against the US dollar to maintain the purchasing power parity.

Interest rate parity is a method that is based on the idea that investors should earn the same return on similar investments in different countries after accounting for the exchange rate. This method forecasts that the exchange rate will change to equalize the interest rate differential between two countries. For example, if the interest rate in Australia is higher than the interest rate in Japan, then the Australian dollar is expected to depreciate against the Japanese yen to offset the higher return on Australian assets.

Balance of payments theory is a method that is based on the idea that a country’s currency value will depend on its balance of trade and capital flows with other countries. This method forecasts that a currency will depreciate if there is a deficit in its balance of payments, and appreciate if there is a surplus. For example, if China exports more goods and services than it imports from other countries, then it will have a positive trade balance and a positive capital inflow. This will increase the demand for Chinese yuan and decrease the supply of foreign currencies. As a result, the Chinese yuan will appreciate against other currencies.

These are some of the methods and tools that can help traders to predict forex price movement. However, none of these methods are perfect or guaranteed to work all the time. Forex market is dynamic and influenced by many factors that are constantly changing. Therefore, traders should use multiple methods and sources of information to analyze and forecast forex price movement. They should also be aware of the risks involved in forex trading and use proper risk management techniques to protect their capital.

Fundamental analysis, Is either for a long term view of the market or short term Whip saw reaction on news release or event release at the time.

Technical analysis, Is in my view the only way to predict price movement, not with lagging indicators which tell you where are now or have been in the past
you need to study indicators which will give you an entry and exit/TP point in the future.

The idea is to trade using predictive TA but be fully aware of Fundamental releases (obviously there are unforeseen event releases ) which you have to manage at the time.

To me, a good test of price predictability would be to see UJ going up higher from where it is now (149.93) to around 151.90. I consider the price cycle incomplete and some functions of price movements pointing to the upside.

Will traders be stopped out before any further move to the upside? Will the move take place today? No one can tell. I can not tell either. It is because any move can take place in a minute or in any number of days. The result would be exactly the same.

The power of price prediction depends on the individual. Picking the right tools, having the right thoughts, the ability to frequently update the view and being there on time when price moves are equally important. Prediction is one thing, trading it is another. I rather track price movements than get married to my prediction.

Trade well,
A.

The prediction on UJ was quite accurate. Here is another one. GU to touch the area around the yellow line.

Because price is a product of its past. You need a past value to adress the future value of price. The past is known. Price only can go up or down relativly to it.

Could you please, by ANY chance, demonstrate your ability to predict price movement?

Well long term i think it's impossible but short term hell yea.

Reason why, is because price is moved based on big fishes (banks, institutions) and small fishes (common retail) and both have smth in common wich is psychology, the banks and the retail enter based on expectations and exict based still on expectations

Now banks and institutions have deep pockets and can wait a losing trade to turn profitable and it does 9 out of 10.... retail on the other hand not so much because there is a limit on capital
Now don't get me wrong, but if retail abandons the dream of big juicy profits can compete with banks untill that happens (wich it won't) they are destined to be in the loop with the ilussion of winning, both small wins to feed the dream and big losses to squash it again and again.


Now on the possibility to predict price movements short term you can, it's called structure and trend, wait for one to form and enter, that's it, easy, you as well as everyone predicted price movement, are you able to profit from it, that's a whole different question , some do some don't, and all in my opinion depends on expectations, i for one, im new to trading, less than 2 years, on and off just recently found out my edge, and i can tell you, its less expectations more on sentiment and structure, ask yourself where is my next hl, lh and what makes it valid that's it simple

Don't be deceived for it's simplicity, it took alot of testing and failure to come to that realization, I've tried all, fvg, fibb, imbalance, indicators, ma, ema, and more more other stuff, eventhough some of them do work, all come from that small description "less expectations, more on sentiment and structure, and ask yourself where is my next hl lh and what makes it valid" i kid you not.

That's the best shot you have to predict price that you've got.

Not sure who is addressed but you can see from 2 predictions above that one could be either exactly or approximately right. You can look at USDCHF that I consider good for around a 150 pips long.
However, one has to understand several important issues when considering a prediction. As I understand, price movements have 5 functions: accumulation, extention of the range of accumulation, bull/bear traps, stopouts and moves to what I call Level 3 peaks. If one is able to identify the functions on all TFs, then a prediction is possible to a limit. One can trade certain functional movements of price in line with the moves of 3s. Now, the variations in the process and the moves of 3s cause predictions to be not 100% precise. This is why I said earlier that one should not insist on any prediction but follow the movements of price real time. Consider that TFs do not exist the way many think they do. Only functions of price movements exist. What also exist is timing concerning how the process must be built up and the movements conclude to an end. When one is able to link the moves of 3s, the functions of price and timing, then one can see the likely moves real time. Trend is not to be traded but the process that is present every single day. One should also understand that price moves from areas of accumulation to areas of accumulation. Therefore accumulation is the most important area on a chart to identify. As said above, past is very important to understand present price movements. It is so important that one should never distort it by an indicator or any trading tool. Add to it the present price action, timing and all and one is good to go.
One thing I would like to add... price does not respect levels, only ranges/areas. And because price levels are out of the picture due to being not workable most of the time, one has to understand functions of price movements to have confidence in a trade. A trade that is good for the day or for a session, not any longer. There is no point keeping trades for a longer period of time due to all the retracements that drag meaningful moves forever.
Lets get back to USDCHF after some time for evaluation - price has to accumulate at current levels, throw in second legs (or other types of topping formations) on multiple TFs. We are currently at a level of tricks.
Good luck,
A.

I think taking a 100% guaranteed and a complete guess is difficult but you can somewhat predict that may collapse sometimes.

I think the key question is not about is it possible to predict market direction but rather ability to make it consistently and have tools that can verify it wasn't result of luck. Many traders fail precisely at this step - they either can't achieve consistency or confuse series of lucky trades with an assumption that they discovered working idea.

It's not about predicting price movements with a hundred percent probability. It's about predicting the likely price movement. That is, a movement that is likely to happen.
And with right ratio of profit and loss, such strategy will bring profit.
Most trading strategies or indicators are based on a pattern.
Somebody noticed that there are repeated scenarios in financial markets. This means that there is high probability that this pattern will repeat again.
And experienced trader knows how to profit from such pattern while following rules of safe trading.

Why didn't AUD do its high impact thing at 12:30am?

We are just guessing the probability of price direction using the tools and data we have, but it’s not 100% accurate.