Hanover has accurately nailed the backtesting problem we all face when trying to build profitable systems: "If we have no edge, we are simply curve fitting."
I agree with him, and bet most of you do to.
So, is it worth trading a curve fit system that backtested well over the last few years or so? Because there is no true edge, and your system is based on the random luck of the fit.
Please comment freely.
I agree with him, and bet most of you do to.
So, is it worth trading a curve fit system that backtested well over the last few years or so? Because there is no true edge, and your system is based on the random luck of the fit.
Please comment freely.