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Justin's Playground

Quoting heispark
Platts JKM hits all-time high at $20.705/MMBtu on cold snap, shipping constraints https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...ng-constraints Here in Seoul is really cold now......
Cold winter in north Asia could affect U.S. Nat Gas price......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Quoting heispark
{quote} Some more z-score stuff....... {file}{file}{image}{file}
Still some more z-score stuff.... I take z-score very seriously. It has a huge potential to trading application I think.
For example, this is a z-score application to MACD: https://www.tradingview.com/script/I...ator-LazyBear/
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Other Youtube videos:
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Quoting heispark
{quote} Cold winter in north Asia could affect U.S. Nat Gas price...... {image}
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
"Live TE only" thread....
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...trade-explorer

It's a funny thread. No wonder why most people in FF including me have no balls to post live TE.... What do you expect to learn from losers?
FF is just a Facebook of traders (or trader wannabes) and mostly waste of time.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Can I trust volume data for CFD?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...or-cfd.354578/
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Quoting heispark
Can I trust volume data for CFD? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...or-cfd.354578/
Whether we buy 0.01 or 1000 lots of a CFD the volume is 1 because we use forex dealers. Even if we used stock brokers the volume is meaningless. This is because shares of a company can be traded on more than one stock exchange so the volume will be the one traded on the stock exchange by your stock dealer.
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Quoting Hutch
{quote} Whether we buy 0.01 or 1000 lots of a CFD the volume is 1 because we use forex dealers. Even if we used stock brokers the volume is meaningless. This is because shares of a company can be traded on more than one stock exchange so the volume will be the one traded on the stock exchange by your stock dealer. {image}
Yes, you're correct. Nowadays dark pools process even bigger volumes so volume data is losing edge. By the way, tick volume in Forex or CFD is still usable. I compared Nat Gas CFD (IC Markets MT4) with Nat Gas Futures (AMP Futures MT5) for VWAP z-score indicator. The result looks marginally similar.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Quoting heispark
Christopher Lewis https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...support-688919 I like his Nat Gas daily analysis and his articles are shown in various media but I don't agree his current view to Nat Gas. He lost buying opportunity as he was too conservative and now he's watching selling opportunity mainly because spring contracts are coming soon and record inventory. However, Nat Gas market has early contango which means professionals view it bullish in a longer term. Also, due to corona...
Chris is watching a selling opportunity (not sure if he really ever trades by the way) now. He was talking about H&S pattern. Personally, I don't trust H&S, pin bar, ... whatsoever patterns. If he believes in H&S, he should know the H&S failure usually targets the top of the head. Anyway, I think he sometimes over-simplifies his analysis. He also covers too many products including oil, gold, forex, .... etc. which I think doesn't allow him in-depth analysis. Even focusing on only one product takes long enough time for proper analysis.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Quoting heispark
{quote} {image}
Dangers in trading Nat Gas...... Short term weather patterns which are very difficult to predict even for the professionals rule Nat Gas prices.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Quoting heispark
{quote} Dangers in trading Nat Gas...... Short term weather patterns which are very difficult to predict even for the professionals rule Nat Gas prices. {image}
One more reason to trade daily and never keep a trade open at the end of the day
Goldman forecasts ‘perfect storm’ for global gas markets

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...l-gas-markets/

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for key natural gas price benchmarks, saying falling supplies and colder weather in Asia and Europe made for a “perfect bullish storm”.
It sees European balances even tighter on colder weather revisions in North-Western Europe and a deeper-than-expected drop in NW European Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) deliveries.
Goldman lifted its Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price forecasts for the rest of the winter, and calendar years 2021 and 2022, to $8.30 per one million British thermal units (mmBtu), $6.72/mmBtu and $6.48/mmBtu from $6.65, $5.63 and $6.03 previously.
The European benchmark Dutch month-ahead gas contract retreated slightly on Wednesday from an over two-year peak scaled in the previous session.
While Goldman expects tightness in coal markets to moderate from the summer, it sees a slower-than-expected return of Colombian coal supplies, implying higher TTF gas prices later.
“We also raise our 2021/22 winter, 2022 summer and 2022/23 winter TTF forecasts to $6.60/mmBtu, $6.30/mmBtu and $6.90/mmBtu from $5.95, $5.85 and $6.75 previously,” the bank said.
Supply disruptions, shipping delays and strong LNG demand, supported by heavy nuclear maintenance in Japan and a cold start to 2021 in North-Eastern Asia, have significantly tightened the market, Goldman analysts said in a note.
The bank also raised its Japan Korea Marker (JKM) forecasts for balance of winter for 2020/21, and calendar years 2021 and 2022, to $14.30/mmBtu, $8.73/mmBtu and $7.85/mmBtu from $12.65, $7.56 and $7.37 previously.
Goldman reiterated its expectation for a significant upside to NYMEX gas prices this summer to help correct what it sees as a 2.5 billion cubic feet per day market imbalance through October 2021, and maintained its $3.25/mmBtu 2021 summer U.S. gas price forecast.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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OTC vs. Exchange

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So I assume Nat Gas futures trading is more transparent than Forex at least in theory .......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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