Disliked{quote} I don't think there's a hurricane premium built into crude. The recent rally has had more to do with broad risk-on sentiment from what I've seen; ... {quote}Ignored
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Disliked{quote} I don't think there's a hurricane premium built into crude. The recent rally has had more to do with broad risk-on sentiment from what I've seen; ... {quote}Ignored
Disliked{quote} I don't think there's a hurricane premium built into crude. The recent rally has had more to do with broad risk-on sentiment from what I've seen; check out this overlay between CL and the S&P in gray: {image} Further, implied volatility (subgraph) for USO options hasn't been increasing lately: {image} I'd think IV would be rising if a hurricane were being priced in. A more skewed volatility smile would really be the best thing to look at for this to tell whether or not Dorian is being priced in to crude. Here's what the current one looks...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yeah, it's looking more and more like Dorian won't make it into the western Gulf. I'm thinking about energy like this: Cooler weather over a state of 20m people would require a few less cooling days so lower NG? Evacuations > higher gas demand > higher RBOBIgnored
Disliked{quote} The selloff in gold would back up everything you've said here. I am still very interested in whether or not crude sells off after the hurricane uncertainty.Ignored
DislikedThey went to check the (stat) parameters "on-site" with an airplane (video)... To update the model... Got some old stat rather... Happy it basically missed Puerto Rico, for the most part... Hurrah!, not Hurricane, for Puerto Ricco! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1QPuQqP2Ts (love the longer - official...Ignored
Disliked{quote} There has already been some NG play and there will probably be more before this is over: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...put-2019-08-29 Have you traded RBOB Ef5? If so is there anything other than the standard future contract that you would recommend to other traders?Ignored
DislikedNext advisory will be coming in about 2 hours. But as of 5pm, the cone is very uncertain. This storm could easily pass through a portion of Florida and end up in the Gulf of Mexico. In that case, oil production in the gulf will be impacted. I'm not trading anything based on this hurricane but I'm paying close attention. After finding that crude sold off after every (east coast) hurricane in 2018, I'm wondering if we stumbled upon something we might be able to use next time. It's worth monitoring and checking at least. Until then, stay safe and I...Ignored
Disliked{quote} At this point I'm 50/50 on whether or not it even hits Florida. Some of the models are now showing it just curving out into the Atlantic. This could be a repeat of what happened with Matthew in 2016: {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} At this point I'm 50/50 on whether or not it even hits Florida. Some of the models are now showing it just curving out into the Atlantic. This could be a repeat of what happened with Matthew in 2016: {image}Ignored
DislikedA high pressure region over NC & VA will steer Dorian westward into FL with a very high probability, aided by a LP region over Cuba. As the HP moves eastward over the Atlantic, Dorian will be able to turn northward, possibly when it is over FL. Low pressure currently over the Midwest should be an attractor as it moves eastward. {image}Ignored
DislikedThey went to check the (stat) parameters "on-site" with an airplane (video)... To update the model... Got some old stat rather... Happy it basically missed Puerto Rico, for the most part... Hurrah!, not Hurricane, for Puerto Ricco! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1QPuQqP2Ts (love the longer - official...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Judging by todays posts/news/warnings.. it is a very stress-test for my model.. and belief in it... Could I be that wrong...? Or will the Hurricane Dorian make an "right turn"... much to anyones surprise.. as I was predicting?Ignored
Disliked{quote} The latest Euro model run has it staying offshore and curving out into the ocean. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Most models are starting to predict that this hurricane will turn and go up the coast. But I can't stress enough how these experts are never accurate. It's impossible to predict. I think it's safe to say the gulf and oil rigs out there won't be affected.Ignored
DislikedDorian is going ashore in the Bahamas as an Andrew-strength storm of 160 mph winds--a catastrophe for them. With a lot of luck, no landfall in the US. EDIT Max sustained winds are 180 mph in Sunday 1100 ET update.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Judging by todays posts/news/warnings.. it is a very stress-test for my model.. and belief in it... Could I be that wrong...? Or will the Hurricane Dorian make an "right turn"... much to anyones surprise.. as I was predicting? We will know soon enough... Either way, I won't back of my prediction... It is always be best to prepare for worst though.. and hope for the best... So here it is, my 1001th post.. In which I reaffirm all my previous posts on the topic.... Judge me by it. Take care and all the best to you, specially the ones living...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Well, the current models seem to be much closer to what I came up with before... but I am not happy with the speed and also was really hoping it would skip Bahamas... so to make the turn sooner... Also.. does anyone know how to make money out of weather predictions? I was exploring the idea in the past but kinda gave up since there was not a convenient trading platform, specially for SPOT trading and also there were some restrictions since (directly) betting on weather was not encouraged... more like hedge/insurance for real business that...Ignored