This thread is a place where you can find and share possible news events that would quickly move any currency pair 200 pips (2% or 3%) or more if they came to pass. Personally I am more interested in the rare 500 pip moves (5% or 8%), it's upcoming news events that may trigger cliffs like the one that accompanied Brexit or the one that accompanied the Swiss National Bank scrapping the Euro ceiling that I want to be warned about and we can throw in our poultry 200 pippers for good measure. I have a feeling that the sure things will be based on capital flows to and from the different bond markets and I would love some input from bond market professionals.
Aside:
The American government is creating inflation with deficit funded stimulus I am expecting that interest rates will rise too high, too quickly, and prick the massive global debt bubble again. The unmistakable long term trend in interest rates is downward and when the bubble bursts this time I would expect NIRP and more QE. I have a very limited understanding of SDR's but my gut feeling is that following that they will eventually be adopted as the global reserve currency in order to absorb excess Dollars, Yen, Yuan and what have you and take them out of the real economies. I think that the big thing to watch this time round may be the bond markets. America is amassing debt at an astounding rate in the midst of what should really be called a boom and I am afraid that towards the end of this period of stability the majority of the big moves in the Forex are going to centre around a general loss of confidence in the major economies government debt. I may be wrong but something will eventually give and when the fear kicks in again we will all be needing the a put from the Fed.
What am I dooming on about? Global debt reserves are at an all time high! I have some bonds to watch so lets get the ball rolling.
S&P gave a negative outlook on the triple A credit rating of Australian government debt in 2016 and I have heard in the media that there are international interests (the details of which I am not aware) that invest huge amounts of money exclusively in AAA rated debt. I have heard that if the Australian governments credit rating is downgraded to AA+ these interests will pull their money and this would cause an immediate 500 pip dive in the AUD/USD.
Can you comment on this or think of another example?
PLEASE NO MORE THAN ONE OFF TOPIC POST! TALK ABOUT THE NEXT CRASH OR BIG NEWS MOSTLY! SERIOUS OFFENDERS WILL BE BLOCKED! I WILL POST SUMMARIES OF THE NEWS ITEMS WE ARE WATCHING FOR PERIODICALLY SO THAT NEWCOMERS DON'T HAVE TO WADE THROUGH ALL THE SPAM, IF THAT'S YOU GO TO THE LAST PAGE AND START FROM THE TOP AND YOU SHOULD FIND AN UPDATE.
PS.
I edited this post substantially after 22 replies so the first page makes little sense.
Aside:
The American government is creating inflation with deficit funded stimulus I am expecting that interest rates will rise too high, too quickly, and prick the massive global debt bubble again. The unmistakable long term trend in interest rates is downward and when the bubble bursts this time I would expect NIRP and more QE. I have a very limited understanding of SDR's but my gut feeling is that following that they will eventually be adopted as the global reserve currency in order to absorb excess Dollars, Yen, Yuan and what have you and take them out of the real economies. I think that the big thing to watch this time round may be the bond markets. America is amassing debt at an astounding rate in the midst of what should really be called a boom and I am afraid that towards the end of this period of stability the majority of the big moves in the Forex are going to centre around a general loss of confidence in the major economies government debt. I may be wrong but something will eventually give and when the fear kicks in again we will all be needing the a put from the Fed.
What am I dooming on about? Global debt reserves are at an all time high! I have some bonds to watch so lets get the ball rolling.
S&P gave a negative outlook on the triple A credit rating of Australian government debt in 2016 and I have heard in the media that there are international interests (the details of which I am not aware) that invest huge amounts of money exclusively in AAA rated debt. I have heard that if the Australian governments credit rating is downgraded to AA+ these interests will pull their money and this would cause an immediate 500 pip dive in the AUD/USD.
Can you comment on this or think of another example?
PLEASE NO MORE THAN ONE OFF TOPIC POST! TALK ABOUT THE NEXT CRASH OR BIG NEWS MOSTLY! SERIOUS OFFENDERS WILL BE BLOCKED! I WILL POST SUMMARIES OF THE NEWS ITEMS WE ARE WATCHING FOR PERIODICALLY SO THAT NEWCOMERS DON'T HAVE TO WADE THROUGH ALL THE SPAM, IF THAT'S YOU GO TO THE LAST PAGE AND START FROM THE TOP AND YOU SHOULD FIND AN UPDATE.
PS.
I edited this post substantially after 22 replies so the first page makes little sense.
Where did all these Repuglican Rightards come from?