@michisuperfr
Powell I heard is a super dove compared to previous runner-ups Taylor and Warsh. Last week we had a bunch of FED members saying there can be 4 rate hikes this year and as you can see the market is starting to price that in with USD going up, however, that just means you have a better spot to short treasuries and USD.
With the 4 rate hikes starting to be priced in, this week FED meeting in Congress will be very important. After watching a few Powell interviews I can see he is very similar to Yellen, 1) will blame data before raising rates. 2) concern about how the market will react to any FED news (will make him sound ambiguous).
I will say March rate hike is already going to happen but the 4th rate hike is still a toss up and may not happen given how Powell is. Other effects of Powell since he is another Yellen are: more bubbles in stocks and housing markets with sluggish inflation. Either way we are in the early stages of rising inflation, we have other central banks sounding more and more hawkish every meeting and they are starting to make some moves that will only start pushing inflation higher.
Trades for Wednesday if Powell sounds dovish is short bonds at a better price, which will be the easiest trade, short USD, long other currencies.
Powell I heard is a super dove compared to previous runner-ups Taylor and Warsh. Last week we had a bunch of FED members saying there can be 4 rate hikes this year and as you can see the market is starting to price that in with USD going up, however, that just means you have a better spot to short treasuries and USD.
With the 4 rate hikes starting to be priced in, this week FED meeting in Congress will be very important. After watching a few Powell interviews I can see he is very similar to Yellen, 1) will blame data before raising rates. 2) concern about how the market will react to any FED news (will make him sound ambiguous).
I will say March rate hike is already going to happen but the 4th rate hike is still a toss up and may not happen given how Powell is. Other effects of Powell since he is another Yellen are: more bubbles in stocks and housing markets with sluggish inflation. Either way we are in the early stages of rising inflation, we have other central banks sounding more and more hawkish every meeting and they are starting to make some moves that will only start pushing inflation higher.
Trades for Wednesday if Powell sounds dovish is short bonds at a better price, which will be the easiest trade, short USD, long other currencies.
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