Canvassing fundie opinions on the aussie dollar, I'm keen to get a few insights on longer-term (6month+) factors in how it might pan out. Leave the charts to one side please (we all now it's at near record highs right?). No dillweeds please.
I don't have any strong opinions but some basics that stand out are:
- foreign investors have all piled into their bonds because of the high yields on AUD. Including a lot of retail from Japan. Presumably set to continue with further yen weakening?
- Strong AUD causing problems with exporters
- Mining = Chinese demand driving a lot of growth in Aus.
- Head of Dow Chemical warned about downturn recently. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226311576495. He's worried about dependency on Chinese trade driving the economy. But given the Chinese economy is still going strong if slowing a little, no immediate concern?
- gold strength depreciated US dollars, appreciated AUD in turn.
- no QE in AUD so natural to appreciate relatively
- Aus recently subbed GM 1/4 billion aud to keep GM manufacturing there.
In short, it's mostly bullish for A/U but even so... something seems amiss.
Thoughts?
I don't have any strong opinions but some basics that stand out are:
- foreign investors have all piled into their bonds because of the high yields on AUD. Including a lot of retail from Japan. Presumably set to continue with further yen weakening?
- Strong AUD causing problems with exporters
- Mining = Chinese demand driving a lot of growth in Aus.
- Head of Dow Chemical warned about downturn recently. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226311576495. He's worried about dependency on Chinese trade driving the economy. But given the Chinese economy is still going strong if slowing a little, no immediate concern?
- gold strength depreciated US dollars, appreciated AUD in turn.
- no QE in AUD so natural to appreciate relatively
- Aus recently subbed GM 1/4 billion aud to keep GM manufacturing there.
In short, it's mostly bullish for A/U but even so... something seems amiss.
Thoughts?