We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
DislikedCrude is selling off on apparently no news. Something had to trigger it. Any ideas?Ignored
Disliked{quote} bank of russia cut their interest rate by 1/4 percent an hour ago . that's the news that moved oil. its wasn't on FF's calendar. but the technicals were setting up perfectly for this drop. look at the 30min chart head and shoulders, look at the right shoulder a perfect bear flag following the impulse down from top of the head .Ignored
Disliked{quote} I'm not big into technicals (anymore), but that chart looks pretty bearish. Why don't you think the price is going into the 40s? Historically oil has done well late cycle and this time its just barely hanging in there. We might see oil in the 20s during the next recession. That would entail huge losses for energy companies so they'll probably make for a great short.Ignored
DislikedSome resistance here... from two perspectives:{image}I also see the China situation taking a temporary breather, which should bring us down a little. I'm short.Ignored
Disliked{quote} bank of russia cut their interest rate by 1/4 percent an hour ago . that's the news that moved oil. its wasn't on FF's calendar. but the technicals were setting up perfectly for this drop. look at the 30min chart head and shoulders, look at the right shoulder a perfect bear flag following the impulse down from top of the head .Ignored
Disliked{quote} The market is just waiting for some cloudy economic news and oil will fall sharply. We did not see that news today. Put your positions on soon gentlemen.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Does that normally affect oil alone? Or you think it's because it matched with the technicals this one occasion? {quote} You called it!Ignored
DislikedHistorically oil has done well late cycle and this time its just barely hanging in there. We might see oil in the 20s during the next recession. That would entail huge losses for energy companies so they'll probably make for a great short.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I am relaxed about recession the yield curve is just a beware sign, no numbers yet to think that it is going to happen next day. We could wait a couple of years to that happen until then we still trading oil to the upside.Ignored
Disliked{quote} {quote} Keep an eye on certain credit spreads and you can find clues about when oil prices become painful.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks, I am still bullish NG and bearish oil: https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...2#post12484332 Today was a great day for that trade, I'll be following closely next week as well, fingers crossed.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I'm with you on monitoring credit spreads, but in my experience that data is tough to come by. Do you have a good source for it?Ignored
Disliked{quote} A Bloomberg terminal is the only really good way or maybe straight from Markit. The next closest thing I have found is following ETFs that try to replicate the indices. So sometimes I'll compare the IG or HY ETF performance to a UST index fund to consider spreads tightening/widening. Examples IG https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/LQD HY https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/HYG.N https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XTXC:GR UST https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGIT/Ignored
Disliked{quote} I'm not big into technicals (anymore), but that chart looks pretty bearish. Why don't you think the price is going into the 40s? Historically oil has done well late cycle and this time its just barely hanging in there. We might see oil in the 20s during the next recession. That would entail huge losses for energy companies so they'll probably make for a great short.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I hope you're right. My shorts got stopped out unfortunately thanks to NFP, Baker Hughes, inventories, and China de-escalation. :\ We'll need some Trump tweets to favor shorting, IMO. But resistance is approaching... {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Do not know if I am right, I am not going to sell oil, just waiting if the price return to 50.Ignored