Cheap, Cheap oil! I would not have predicted we start the week lower given the weekend events.
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DislikedOne of the more important events to unfold today was China specifically targeting US oil for a tariff. Whomever was long Brent and short WTI made out well today!Ignored
Disliked{quote} I ended up getting out before the weekend. G7 was making me nervous:{image}Ignored
DislikedEvery time a drop in CL happens, it's accompanied by a spike in volume. There's still heavy selling pressure in Crude. Check it out on the 30M chart: {image}Ignored
DislikedWow people... anyone have some real stat of hurricane "trading" vs OIL? As I have said many times... weather and also hurricanes.. were my "original" prediction "expertise..." then I moved to FX and other markets... So what would you say is the relation, I could try to model the hurricane path.. did so many years ago.. saved me quite a bit Please if anyone could make/estimate the scenario.. IF Dorian hits.. at certain level... will cause this price change... ETC... Anyone has that info at hand, out of stat or head or (trading) feel?Ignored
Hurricane Michael got up to a category 5 hurricane in the gulf of mexico before making landfull. You'd think that the supply disruption would send crude prices higher. Just the opposite. Check it out:
During Oct 7th - Oct 11th Crude (CL) sold off:
Disliked{quote} I went looking to see what I could find. I used this list of 2018 hurricanes and only focused on from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. What I found was surprising. Right before the storm was classified as an official hurricane or tropical storm, crude prices would trend a higher. But then during the period of when the storm is to when it dies out, there was always a pretty big sell off. Almost like buy the rumor, sell the news effect every single time. Here's an example: Hurricane Michael got up to a category 5 hurricane in the gulf...Ignored
DislikedYeah, if oil was going to spike due to a hurricane I think we are too late to catch that move already. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a selloff when this turns out to be a dud. I say dud only in oil market terms- wish for the best for everyone in its path!Ignored
DislikedThis may be naive, but I think this could explain the large draws in inventory. Is it plausible that inventory declining is due to people stocking up prior to the hurricane's possible supply disruption?Ignored
DislikedVolume in crude is coming into the CL front-month when the prices are going up. This week there seems to have been a shift. This is indicating some upward pressure on crude prices. The only thing I'd be concerned with is if this recent buying was related to fears about Hurricane Dorian. If so, WTI will sell off hard in the next few days. If not, WTI might be breaking out. Check out the week CL has had: {image}Ignored