Sure, well, I was describing the bank shot and push-pull relationship for USD between two looming scenarios, but ...

EURUSD only

One other thing: geopolitical risk-off events and market volatility tend to unwind the UJ carry trade, but that's because it's a carry trade, not because USDs suddenly become less desirable to market participants. If for example US goes kinetic in ...

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However, it may be "different this time." There are some stories here and there claiming that there may be coordinated intervention, which is a different situation altogether than just the BOJ all by its lonesome bringing a strongly-worded letter to ...

EURUSD only

Airlines are voluntarily canceling flights to the Middle East "until further notice." Escalation feels likely.

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Most of today's EURUSD run seems to be from USD selling based on rumors of BOJ intervention. These episodes tend to blow over quickly because for one, BOJ does not have the firepower to overpower the markets, and two, they are more concerned with fx ...

EURUSD only

USA seldom moves the amount of military mass it has moved in the last week or so without strong intent to use it. I would not carry a EURUSD long into this weekend.

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Hmm, looks like a certain central bank on the western Pacific rim might be doing some thing here. (A thing that has a track record of only "working" momentarily before the markets negate the thing.)

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(And the banks also have much more sophisticated hedging mechanisms than most retail traders, so they don't need to tip their hand on the spot market tape.)

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Yet another weekend of high geopolitical risk looms, but this time with CVN-72 CSG very likely on station off the coast of Iran. Remember: 1) Long EURUSD is a risk-on trade. 2) The banks control the exchange rates, and they have better real-time ...

EURUSD only

And also "getting rid of Powell" has never been a magic bullet for POTUS to influence interest rates. The C in FOMC is Committee - it's a committee decision on the Fed funds rate. There is a diversity of opinion on the FOMC, by design, and POTUS ...

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IMO there's a good chance these headlines will eventually turn out to have been theater (albeit reckless theater). And since theater seems to be SOP for POTUS 47, that suggests a longer-term trading strategy might be a better approach while this ...

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Regular reminder - long EURUSD is a risk-on trade, and we seem to be going into yet another weekend of high geopolitical risk, considering the military assets that are being moved around the board. Banks are going to have better info about what may ...

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Inability to make that pop from the EURUSD-favorable CPI print bodes poorly for EURUSD bulls IMO. The market has had tunnel vision on Fed funds rate predictions. When their obsession slaps them in the face, something is up.

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Many ways to turn a profit, as long as... image

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Just a reminder that long EURUSD is a risk-on trade, and there could be major geopolitical developments this weekend, that create reactions, counter-reactions, and uncertainty.

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Practical trading advice - stand aside and let the machines fight it out around major scheduled announcements. The machines always have a digital food fight over NFP releases. Don't get any on ya.

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50K jobs created vs 66K expected is starting to get down into measurement noise, IMO, considering the NFP methodology (surveys) and a two-revision data series finalization process.

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And there we are - anemic job creation but a (USD-bullish) downtick in the thing the Fed pays primary attention to - U3. Basically a continuation of the story that Powell has been narrating as not giving good reason for rapid cuts. The machines will ...

EURUSD only

USD-bullish jobs data at 8:30am EST could result in a bearish weekly candle close, however the weekly chart has significant support around 1.1500. But here's the problem for technical traders: the idea that "the market assimilates all data in real ...

EURUSD only