looks like it's either reacting to USD strength and updated rate hike expectations, or the idea that RBA policy is already restrictive enough. At any rate I think if the RBA May 26th shit isnt too disappointing we should push back toward 0.72, it's ...

AUD/USD

My understanding of bond markets right now is that most central banks won’t touch real QE because it would look like fiscal dominance and unanchor inflation expectations. What they will do is use temporary liquidity tools or market‑functioning ops ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

So ya I think QE still weakens FX, but cuts would blow the currency out completely. Which is why I think the central banks of the world will opt for QE to deal with this Iran-linked rise in CPI, it’s the only easing tool that wont immediately ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

What if QE/massive bond buying transmits inflation more slowly than rate cuts since rate cuts translate to cheaper credit in the immediate. But I guess that with debt ratios being what they are today, the market wouldnt need CPI to spike for yields ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

The reason the market keeps ripping despite the oil crisis : Like it's pretty much a dull market at this point and we still have some of those AI IPO's to look forward to. Might see some US-Iran action this weekend, I think the US is planning some ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

yeah it would be interesting to look at the number of days crude has managed to stay over 100 since the start of the war, it seems like the fact that it's totally unsustainable forces escalation which then forces some kind of future negotiation. ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

wow is it just me or is the gap between BTCUSD and BTCEUR wider than it usual despite EURUSD being in that 1.15-1.118 range? Definitely looks like a bottom to me, but idk, I've been trying to avoid BTC

financial insights - fundamental market factors

I feel like the AI trade is just carrying the whole thing right now and market breadth remains hella narrow, I like the narrative but I'm definitely eyeing a potential pullback for a long entry on the index. If you look at a chart like AVGO, it's ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

Live Updates: Trump says Iran war "close to over" as Pakistan pushes for new peace talks I find this so interesting, like ya they agreed to another round of talks, which calmed markets. I think Iran is not exactly in a position of strength right ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

Ya its crazy, the IEA is already saying demand destruction. But my take is that the ceasefire + better Hormuz flows are kind of keeping prices down + Trump agreed to meet Iran again in Islamabad, which I guess the markets loving right now because ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

I find it interesting the SP500 is more or less holding steady despite the increase in the price of oil, like I'm aware it's mainly just the idea that the conflict will be short lived + tech stocks at bargain prices, but other risk-on plays like ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

That's insane, i wonder how high it can go and what % of gulf output has been taken out by the situation in Iran

financial insights - fundamental market factors

Looks like shit is about to go down this week, seems like US-IL intensifying strikes and that the IRGC is kind of freaking out, seeing as they asked people to form 'human chains' around their strategic assets (power plants, etc.), which makes me ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

UK to host talks with 35 countries on reopening Strait of Hormuz | Reuters My take is that the political calculus for Starmer (and most European leaders) is fundamentally different from Trump's. Trump embraces the "I'll do what others won't" posture ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

Lol LMT stock isnt even doing anything and there's a war on, if i were to jump back in it would have to be some tech stock whose earnings analysts are excited about, especially seeing as theyre cheap right now. It's funny I dont think I've purchased ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

Hormuz 100% giving Trump a headache, but the missile side is shifting fast. Iran’s down to ~20-30 ballistic shots/day (from 300-400 early on) with a significant decrease in launcher & production capabilities, and yet their hit rate is creeping up. ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors

Not that familiar with Strait of Malacca, but like couldnt China just reroute its shipping & price in slightly higher costs? like yes everything passes thru it bc its the cheapest route but its less of a chokepoint than the Strait of Hormuz IMO

financial insights - fundamental market factors

Yeah, that’s basically where I land too. You can cut policy rates while shrinking the balance sheet, but the transmission channels don’t all move in the same direction. Lowering the policy rate makes interbank funding and new loan creation cheaper, ...

financial insights - fundamental market factors