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- 287 Results (233 Replies, 54 Comments)
- bartholemew commented Jun 17, 2022
Probably the most crowded trade in the entire FX market right now.
Kuroda: We are ready to ease policy further if needed
- bartholemew commented Jun 17, 2022
Probably the most crowded trade in the entire FX market right now.
Kuroda: CPI likely to be around 2% for time being
- bartholemew commented Jun 16, 2022
The JPY carry trade - the more sure you are, the more wrong you can be. Looking like Wile E. Coyote time.
Japan runs biggest trade deficit in more than 8 years in May
- bartholemew commented Jun 6, 2022
Long UJ is a very very crowded trade. The Wile E. Coyote moment is coming.
Kuroda: The Bank's Thinking on Monetary Policy: Toward Achieving the Price Stability Target in...
- bartholemew commented Apr 28, 2022
MUTO fight at the moment between 130 and 131...
Japanese Finance Ministry Official: Excess FX Volatility Is Undesirable, Recent Moves Are...
- bartholemew commented Apr 28, 2022
Looks like the market is "carefully considering the finmin's statements," (aka the Japanese low-key way to say go pound sand). Still, though, cant-lose, cant-miss trades usually end up getting leveraged to such grotesque levels that when the ...
Japanese Finance Ministry Official: Excess FX Volatility Is Undesirable, Recent Moves Are...
- bartholemew commented Apr 22, 2022
The longer the "can't miss, can't lose" JPY carry trade goes on, the more grotesque the leverage in the trade will grow, and the more vicious the risk-off counter move will be when there is, oh, say, a major geopolitical surprise overnight/over the ...
Kuroda: BOJ must keep ‘aggressive’ easing, even as yen drops
- bartholemew commented Apr 18, 2022
The reversal of this move is going to be brutal whenever it comes. The "inevitability" of the Yen's decline tends to attract overleveraging, and we're in very dangerous geopolitical times that can vaporize risk-on trades overnight.
BoJ Kuroda: A weak Yen benefits Japan's economy as a whole
- bartholemew commented Apr 13, 2022
A good question to ask at times like these is: how many people are left on the planet who are just now hearing about the Yen carry trade today? (And are they good traders?)
Kuroda: Will maintain aggressive easing for the foreseeable future
- bartholemew commented Apr 12, 2022
Less than 6 hours to widely-telegraphed hot US CPI numbers - will see soon if there is a USDJPY sell on the news.
BoJ’s Kuroda: Will Maintain Ultra-Loose Policy To Stably Achieve 2% Inflation Target,...
- bartholemew commented Apr 11, 2022
Yes, but the carry trade "thinks" like an alcoholic - if some is good, more is better. It works until it doesn't, and then when everyone tries to hit the exit at the same time, they get extruded out the other side as unrecognizable goo.
BoJ’s Kuroda: Will Maintain Ultra-Loose Policy To Stably Achieve 2% Inflation Target,...
- bartholemew commented Apr 10, 2022
Yen carry trade - all good and well until geopolitics gets even more deadly...which could happen at any hour of any day these days.
BoJ’s Kuroda: Will Maintain Ultra-Loose Policy To Stably Achieve 2% Inflation Target,...
- bartholemew replied Apr 28, 2021
Powell acknowledges housing market frothiness, but since nobody needs shelter, hey, there's no inflation.
EURUSD only
- bartholemew replied Apr 23, 2021
We'll see how US tax policy changes affect the fiscal issues and how infrastructure spend drives growth. It should not be lost on the Fed or the Biden administration that ZIRP to Infinity puts the US in deep dangerous waters whenever the next global ...
EURUSD only
- bartholemew replied Apr 23, 2021
While they have no mandate to target exchange rates directly, they must take exchange rates into account for the things they do target, which can then indirectly affect exchange rates. Draghi hinted at this more than once IIRC. As for PPP, we can ...
EURUSD only
- bartholemew replied Apr 14, 2021
Still bearish on EURUSD on daily/weekly charts, for the same reasons as stated before. Weekly/monthly EURUSD chart is attempting to confirm a long-term trend reversal down to up. Such long-term reversals must have a fundamental basis, and I don't ...
EURUSD only
- bartholemew replied Feb 25, 2021
Dollar weakness or lack thereof is driving the train here, not any EUR strength. EUR is weak relative to GBP, AUD, NZD. Expect EURUSD to get hit hardest if USD rallies on risk-off sentiment or any major "strong dollar policy" announcements from ...
EURUSD only