The market seems to have target fixation on retesting 160, but long UJ is a crowded trade. It's one geopolitical miscalculation away from longs getting extruded through the exit door.

BOJ's Ueda expects gradual rise in price trend

No-brainer trades tend to attract those w/no brains, which leads to crowded trades, which leads to vicious reversals.

Yen weakens below 200-day moving average of 151.37 against the US dollar

"The more sure you are, the more wrong you can be." - Ashleigh Brilliant Long USDJPY is what's known as a crowded trade. In any case, consider doing the opposite of what the big banks tell you to do on mainstream financial media.

USD/JPY drops a fresh low for the session, under 155.40

All that's needed to burn UJ permabulls badly here is a big risk-off geopolitical event...

Strong suspicions of BOJ intervention looking at that USDJPY chart...

Crowded trade - UJ permabulls getting extruded...

Strong suspicions of BOJ intervention looking at that USDJPY chart...

"I mean, we might. We could. We're thinking about it."

Japan top currency diplomat Kanda: Need to pay close attention to impact on forex market from...

"Be warned - we might bring a sternly-worded letter to this gunfight."

Japan top currency diplomat Kanda: Need to pay close attention to impact on forex market from...

Bring a strongly-worded letter to a gunfight, go home with a strongly-worded letter full of bullet holes.

BoJ Gov Ueda: We Won't Change Monetary Policy Just To Deal Directly With FX Moves

BOJ: Here is the level you need to test. Markets: Okie-dokie. You do realize we have way more firepower than you, always have, and always will...right?

Japan's Former Top Currency Diplomat Yamazaki: Japan will likely intervene in the FX market if...

BOJ: We would like to announce that we are possibly maybe thinking about doing something someday. Sound the trumpets. Markets: We've been here all this time, actively doing things, and thus it will ever be.

BOJ might mull rate hike from summer to autumn

Bringing a sternly-worded letter to a gunfight.

Japan's finance minister sees 'speculative' moves in currency market

Bringing a sternly-worded letter to gunfight. Might result in a moment of pause to read the letter, for purposes of amusement.

Japan FinMin Suzuki won't rule out any steps in response to disorderly FX moves

Their FX reserves available to directly intervene in FX markets are no match for the markets. Not even close. Any FX intervention effects will be minor both in price and in time. The markets will steamroll them within 24-48 hours. They will only ...

BOJ's Governor Ueda: We are to a mull policy response if fx makes a big impact on outlook

No material change to bond purchases means everything is still hypothetical. FX markets already know what to do with any FX intervention threats (immediately test and destroy them).

Yen futures sink to contract lows after BOJ announces rate increase, 3/19/24

If BOJ is going to take on the FX markets they need to treat it like the close-quarters knife fight that it is. A knife blade is best felt and not seen in such a situation. Announcing beforehand what you might theoretically do only stokes the FX ...

BOJ's Governor Ueda: We are to a mull policy response if fx makes a big impact on outlook

BOJ is "carefully considering the market's request" that the JPY go even lower immediately...

Yen Erases Intraday Losses, Trades Higher Versus US Dollar

Yep.

Japan intervenes in currency market to support yen: Nikkei

If you're trying to fade the BoJ here on a Friday, you're risking getting run over by a 2nd wave of intervention early Monday Tokyo time, when FX liquidity is low and their limited firepower has more leverage.

Japan intervenes in currency market to support yen: Nikkei

Two words - Crowded Trade.

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Cannot Tolerate Excess FX Volatility Backed by Speculative Moves

Short JPY is the most crowded trade in the FX market. The reversal, when it happens, will be brutal.

Japan govt official on CPI data: weakening yen has an impact on the prices of imported goods