Another muted reaction to cooler-than-forecast inflation (PPI m/m). Note again m/m readings are noisier than y/y readings, and the cooler-than-expected m/m 0.0 PPI reading was an adjusted number (seasonal etc. adjustments). Unadjusted y/y PPI ...

EURUSD only

If it makes weak-looking progress to just under the pre-CPI levels (1.167 - 1.168'ish) before the PPI comes out this morning, that could be a good spot to put on a speculative fractional position, considering that 3 major USD economic data points in ...

EURUSD only

Yep, that's the timeframe I'm looking at (4-8 weeks) Swing traders get paid carry interest on the way down unless the Fed or ECB do a rate change, which seems unlikely over that timeframe.

EURUSD only

Alternate interpretation is that the two years of rangebound trade in '23-'24 actually was the correction to the Q4 2022 rebound off of the breach of parity (i.e. a correction in time vs. correction in price), and we're now in wave 3, which if I ...

EURUSD only

The target remains 1.11. To me, the Jan '25 to present move from 1.02 to 1.18 has the character of an uncorrected wave 1 (i.e. first wave of a long-term trend reversal - for those who believe in Elliott waves). image

EURUSD only

Never take it personally if the market goes against you - it doesn't know or care how recently or how badly it nicked your account...

EURUSD only

Year-over-year core CPI was also high, at 2.9%: url image

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A muted reaction so far to mixed USD inflation headlines. Cooling core CPI (0.2% actual vs. 0.3% expected) is a m/m number (i.e. a noisier data series) vs. hotter than expected y/y headline CPI (2.7% actual vs 2.6% expected). EURUSD bulls likely to ...

EURUSD only

Long term trend on the daily is a downtrend. There is a possible trend reversal in play from the Q3 2022 lows to the Q1 2025 lows, but long-term trend reversals usually need to be tested. Four to 8-week target is 1.11, with room to 1.08 if the first ...

EURUSD only

Yep, that's my stretch target - nominally looking for 1.11, but 1.08 is definitely not out of the question.

EURUSD only

Remaining bearish, with 1.11 EURUSD target over next 4-8 weeks. So far, it's unable to re-take sharp sell-off losses from bullish USD economic reports. Until and unless the Fed cuts more, this is a negative carry trade for bulls, which puts some ...

EURUSD only

Rally momentum is stalled out ever since the most recent monthly US NFP report. The uncorrected countertrend move on the daily chart has work to do to the downside. image

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As stated in August 2021: url

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image My target for EURUSD is 1.11. I view the rally that's unfolded since the start of 2025 as an uncorrected countertrend move in a long downtrend that started in 2008 with the GFC and was further reinforced by the European debt crisis. The ...

EURUSD only

FOMC minutes drop in just over 10 hours. Their messaging has been reasonably consistent that rate cuts are not yet supported by the macro picture (tariffs, etc.)

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The caveat as always with obvious targets is that they can be so obvious that they're too obvious.

EURUSD only

Yep. Mm-hmm.

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Nice overextended rally you got going there, EUR bulls. Be a shame if a strong NFP report came out ahead of a three-day weekend for US markets and you had to ask yourselves, "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya?

EURUSD only

Technicals are all good and well until they get wrecked by new fundamentals. Lots of geopolitical risk brewing at the moment in the Middle East.

EURUSD only

Technicals are all good and well until they get wrecked by new fundamentals. Lots of geopolitical risk brewing at the moment in the Middle East.

Only EURUSD