Caution is obviously warranted but FOMC independence is considered extremely important not just by the Fed but by Wall Street and investors. A surprise cut would be very counterproductive and disruptive to markets. And given the "TACO" phenomenon, ...

EURUSD only

Wednesday FOMC outcome is well-telegraphed IMO and I expect markets will be noncommittal until NFP on Friday. But if EURUSD remains below the 1.156 level from prior to the Trump tweet/"fire Powell" market noise, that suggests the 1.11 target is very ...

EURUSD only

Version with notes from prior to all the "fire Powell" jawboning: image

EURUSD only

The song (and the target) remains the same. image

EURUSD only

Breaking below 1.156, where all the jawboning about firing Powell started, greenlights the 1.11 target IMO.

EURUSD only

Slammed back down through Trump tweet whipsaw levels... image

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EURUSD only

In just over 12 hours we get major EUR data and an ECB press conferences a few hours after that. The rally this week has seemingly been about the USD side of this pair and all the rate cut jawboning, but the EUR side is going to weigh in heavily ...

EURUSD only

Overhead supply at the Trump tweet whipsaw level - folks who bought into the fantasy that Trump could fire Powell and force rates lower are made whole at this level and still stinging from how viciously the news and the tape reversed on them. ...

EURUSD only

To my thinking, the disruption of the downtrend really was driven by the Trump tweets and Fed Gov. Waller comments (and there's speculation Waller is gunning for Powell's job). Because of FOMC decision and governance dynamics previously commented on ...

EURUSD only

Schroedinger's trader - try to look at each trade as if you are not in the position ("what would I do next here - long, short, no position?") and also in the position ("now that I'm in, what does the market's likely next move imply for my risk ...

EURUSD only

No change to 4 to 8-week target so far. image

EURUSD only

Short positions here look to be a bit more risky than 24 hours ago: * No further USD strengthening on higher-than-projected retail sales and lower-than-projected jobless claims data today July 17. * Fed governor Waller, a hawkish but data-driven ...

EURUSD only

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Always size positions for historical & projected volatility and for expected holding period. Trump headlines are pure noise. Even if he could fire Powell (he can't), the C in FOMC is for "committee." Powell gets just one vote. Memes aside, he ...

EURUSD only

No change to bearish thesis. The headline was shown to be noise in less than an hour. We get yet another USD economic data point again tomorrow morning. Seems likely it'll continue to reinforce the no-imminent-Fed-rate-cuts thesis.

EURUSD only

Remember, this is the same POTUS who during his first term was calling for negative interest rates, and even his most loyal supporters were having to give him the tap on the shoulder to say "that's not how this works."

EURUSD only

Good scalp opportunity for a long trade, but also good short entry for a swing trade. Powell isn't dumb enough to give anyone a legal reason to fire him.

EURUSD only

Just a Trump spasm. Firing FOMC chair is not permitted by law. Carry on.

EURUSD only

USD data releases are not coming to save the bulls at this rate. image

EURUSD only