CPI Tuesday is the key this week. The Fed has been clear they are all about beating inflation. A very hot (or a very cold) number could nuke EURUSD bulls (or bears, respectively). Inline data probably means more chop and speculation, and continued ...

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Now considering the 1.11 target to be at risk. It will hinge on CPI numbers next week, which come out before the next weekly jobless claims report. Target could also easily come back into full play if CPI comes in hot and/or the Ukraine conflict ...

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IMO EUR caution is warranted. Ukraine continues to chip away at RU war machine, which makes a desperation move by Putin more likely.

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Next level to watch is intraday pullback on NFP Friday, around 1.1515. The sharp NFP reaction was likely mostly algorithmically-driven, without nuanced analysis of BLS reports and other data, which leaves it more open to retracement or even a full ...

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Cracking through the news release level. Reality is sinking in for bulls...

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And depending on the violence of the move, the discussion can then shift to 1.08, 1.04, and 1.02: image

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Continuing to sober up after Friday's knee-jerk reaction and rate cut fantasies. Watch market behavior at the news release level around 1.154... image

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Trump’s Interest Rate Obstacle Is Bigger Than Powell "Higher rates are the result of far more than Fed decisions. Debt, demographics, and deglobalization are all driving the price of money up."

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No change to 1.11 EURUSD target. image

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And besides, there are enough moderate Republicans in the Senate that the appointment of a politically-driven sycophant is highly unlikely.

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Plausible scenario supporting the price action late Friday: Kugler resigning for personal reasons, Trump taking the opportunity to install a shadow chair. Still, messing with fed independence is bad for the markets and the economy.

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The late-day market reaction to the Kugler resignation doesn't make much sense. If she disagreed with Powell and was more aligned with Trump's views on rate cuts, what does resigning accomplish? Her absence from the most recent rate meeting was ...

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On the other hand, there were downward revisions to prior months' job creation data.

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So far, barely able to clear momentarily pre-FOMC levels. To me this looks like pre-weekend profit-taking on shorts after a very profitable week, not a new leg up in the 2025 rally. The headline number provided the excuse. Of course, it's better to ...

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Weak NFP headline number and dollar drop knee jerk reaction but don't get too excited. Powell on Wed outlined that they are serious about inflation and PCE was still sticky yesterday. Powell also outlined that while job creation may be dropping, ...

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I'm in favor of giving strong consideration to doing the opposite of what large financial institutions suggest I do, especially if those suggestions are in headlines in the mainstream financial media.

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USD pairs likely to remain noncommittal until tomorrow's NFP release, but again, PCE was the main event for this week. The Fed is serious about inflation.

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And there it is - inline PCE data, reinforcing the Fed's sticky inflation narrative.

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Powell laid out the case for the pause in rate cuts in plenty of detail at the FOMC press conference. If PCE numbers come in hot or inline, EURUSD continues down. PCE is likely the more important number here vs. NFP on Friday, since sticky inflation ...

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The crazy tweets are expected and after the whipsaw tweets from a couple weeks ago, my guess is markets will not react as strongly. Or, maybe they will. The well-connected and well-resourced can certainly grift off of inside information and ...

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