The trend is your friend...

EURUSD only

The 1.11 level is still patiently waiting, and 1.14 looks to be interested in helping out. All the while, bears collect carry interest payments from bulls...

EURUSD only

image

EURUSD only

image

EURUSD only

In spite of the jawboning detour of the last 6 weeks, 1.11 could very well still be in play. image

EURUSD only

It hurts to get top-ticked. It hurts even more to not realize you got top-ticked until you've lost way more than you ever "planned" to. image

EURUSD only

I would encourage everyone seeking to form a longer timeframe opinion on this market to watch Powell's FOMC press conference from today, listening for the discussion of their statutory dual mandate, inflation projections, the distinction between ...

EURUSD only

I suspect there has been an increase in the last 2-3 hours of market participants who are, or who soon will be, or who should be, or who will soon (or eventually) reluctantly be forced into wondering whether they just got top-ticked... image

EURUSD only

It's different on different timeframes, so it's important to decide what timeframe one is trading.

EURUSD only

The trend is your friend. image

EURUSD only

It would indeed be interesting to see a "hawkish cut" on Wednesday ("here's your 25 bips and that's all you're getting until the data supports more - which it doesn't support right now"). Markets seem to be priced to party and that's when those Wile ...

EURUSD only

Trump wants low interest rates while also wanting strong jobs numbers and for everyone to look across the valley on tariff inflation. Data-driven, disciplined actors - such as the Fed and the markets - are correct to not be satisfied with "just ...

EURUSD only

I had a bearish analysis at the end of July, based on long-term timeframes and a thesis that long-term downtrend reversals are very prone to requiring a significant retest to confirm. That analysis weakened throughout August - corrections and ...

EURUSD only

Interesting that European continent currencies were weak vs. USD in today's EU down move around 11 a.m. EST while major APAC currencies were much less so during the same time. USD rate expectations have been getting the headlines, but the EUR part ...

EURUSD only

Remember, Lagarde has a speech teed up at Jackson Hole over the weekend. She probably won't say anything super market-moving, but it's still a gap risk for Monday either way.

EURUSD only

Haven't read the full Powell speech but its bottom line seems to be the Fed is committed to a 2% long-run inflation target, and that remains to be achieved. Initial reaction is driven by instant AI parsing and automated trading, maybe focusing on ...

EURUSD only

Cracking through NFP Friday close: image

EURUSD only

The Fed has said it over and over again - they're serious about inflation.

EURUSD only

Here we go again with the tweets. Noise.

EURUSD only

Muted reaction so far but with all the political jawboning of recent weeks, it seems the markets badly want USD rate cuts and pin their hopes on them. Yet, MoM core CPI was inline. The only thing contributing to the pop on headlines was a cooler YoY ...

EURUSD only