IMO there is plenty of work over the long term that could be done all the way to 1.08 (and in the extreme case, a full re-test of parity). image

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Additionally, EUR has not just its congenital defects dating back to its inception (when it indeed traded below parity for >2 years), but also the taint from its "distinction" of having imposed haircuts on bank depositors during the European debt ...

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While interest rates are obviously important, economic growth rates are also important, and the US economy is projected to grow about 1% faster than the EU economy in 2026 (about 2% USA growth vs 1% EU growth). At the scale of the two economies, ...

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EUR has the baggage of being the currency that A) was at the center of the European debt crisis, and B) forced bank depositors to take haircuts, an involuntary financial dismemberment that is not easily forgotten, and one that taints EUR as a ...

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Today's bullish technical development seems to have gotten its impetus very specifically from a worse-than-projected initial jobless claims release at 8:30am Eastern. EURUSD bulls would do well to remember: 1) Since it's a weekly series, initial ...

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FOMC press conference summary: "Keeping inflation low is our job, and we're going to do our job."

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And speaking of selling the news, and promptly: image

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Perhaps the plunge protection team is working the tape today. Per my prior post, a close near weekly lows in the US equity markets would be particularly bad voodoo.

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On the other hand, several Fed heads have been talking about market crash risk lately, and there is always the notion of the plunge protection team pulling strings behind the curtains... But even Fed wizards can't do anything about military ...

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EURUSD is overly focused on the Fed IMO. Just because you don't fight the Fed, it doesn't mean they are the only game in town.

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A reminder that long EURUSD is a risk-on trade - in spite of all the (IMO overblown) de-dollarization chatter, USD is still the safe haven when markets get nervous and sell off. Unless US equity markets bounce convincingly today, they are set to ...

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NFP reaction nets out to a shrug of the shoulders. It's old data, and there's much fresher data on the docket for tomorrow.

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Muted reaction so far to FOMC minutes release. The machines ingest and parse the text within milliseconds, so the algos apparently didn't find much to move markets one way or the other, especially given the move that's already happened intraday. ...

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The 1.11 target remains alive and viable. Recent Fed governor speeches/comments regarding inflation still being a thing foreshadow no relief for bulls when the FOMC minutes are released in a few hours. image

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Bulls need to remember that long EURUSD is a risk-on trade, the geopolitical situation is far from settled, and kinetic things can happen on weekends. Military commanders don't seek the approval of the markets for their decisions.

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