Short EUR/AUD looking interesting again too w/overnight surprise China stimulus goosing the AUD. Currently at support level but the market loves to break support levels.

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Well done on close and reverse - it's psychologically difficult for some to do. It's important to purge any emotional baggage (positive or negative) from closed trades quickly, and look at each new trade with fresh new eyes. The market doesn't know ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

I'm mostly technically oriented as well, however as I mentioned before I've been burned in the past trading pairs like EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD based only on those charts w/out analyzing the crosses vs. the majors. To me, a EUR/GBP chart is more twitchy ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Thanks for reminder on SNB floor proximity. EUR/CHF is such a slow motion trade that I seldom look at it.

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Note that Weidmann is on the mic in about 30 minutes.

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Convinced of the price move, I presume? My comments about what the Fed might do were purely hypothetical. But I think at the last Jackson Hole shindig with Bernanke at the helm there were some papers aired about taking care not to cause too much ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

One other thing - the Fed is probably at least thinking about what would be the effects of an uncontrolled USD melt-up on the global system. They could theoretically send some of their doves out to make some soothing rate hike comments in an attempt ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Hot UK retail sales print just now drawing a contrast between EUR and GBP, hot stuff.

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Maybe the weak German PMI print just now will give the Buba a reason to finally not see inflation everywhere, just this once, at least for a little while.

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Just my opinion as always but I think technical analysis is just plain harder on pairs where the economies are tightly coupled (e.g. EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD, etc.) Longer term it's about relative monetary policy expectation and relative economic ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

We may need to see capitulation from the Bundesbank on EUR QE before this short trade can really work. They could have their heads up a donkey's rear end and they'd probably say "hey, it's a little dark in here, but I'm pretty sure I see some ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

IMO EUR/GBP runup this time was fueled by GBP/USD downward momentum (no support levels nearby) as well as EURUSD wavering on the QE debate between ECB and Buba. But (again, IMO) EUR/GBP doesn't have a good reason to trend higher over the longer term ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

For a short term trade, anything can happen. On a longer term fundamental view I think EUR has few if any reasons to trade higher against GBP. Maybe against JPY, but not against GBP.

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

Long EUR/GBP positions seem like low probability countertrend bets to me. If you get the timing just right on both the entry and the exit you can nail down a fast profit ... but ... which central bank is going to hike first? Which economy is going ...

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

When there is an actor in the market (RBNZ) that has an agenda other than short term profit it can throw support levels out the window.

NZD/USD

The other thing is that the USD is going to whip this around if its parabolic rally corrects.

NZD/USD

Still, it sounds like they (RBNZ) are saying that they are coming gunning for the market.

NZD/USD

One thing to note though: the RBNZ data on prior declines (See Table 1 here: url ) shows initial 4-quarter declines off of peak NZD exchange rates of about 10% and we are already down that much off the recent peak in just one summer.

NZD/USD

Jawbone smackdown just now: url "Why the NZ exchange rate is unjustified and unsustainable" Translation: Longs - get out of our way.

NZD/USD

Yes, a difficult equation, that the market is quite aware of. And markets like to test the resolve of major players ... tip over a big ship and scoop up profits.

NZD/USD