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This 'Adjusted' Yield Curve Indicates A Recession May Come Early
While the mainstream financial media focuses on the U.S.-China trade-war – macro-speculators are eyeing global yield curves – which are now signaling trouble. But according to this ‘adjusted’ U.S. yield curve – a recession may be coming much sooner than many expect. Let me explain. . . First – here’s some context: back in early December 2018, the U.S. yield curve inverted for the first time since the Great Recession of 2008 (the 5-year bond yielded less than the 3-year bond). Then – after a month of turmoil – things looked slightly better in the first quarter of 2019 (at least in the market’s ... (full story)