In this week’s post we assess near-term “peak oil demand” signposts, none of which support the idea that a peak is imminent by or around 2030. Three points: • “Efficiency gains” are well below levels required to stabilize oil demand at a normal global GDP growth rate let alone drive a decline. • The onset of an “EV Recession” is revealing the absurdity of applying uniform, aggressive EV adoption “s-curves” to all regions as a base-case forecast. • OECD demand, which we agree is mature and we had thought could decline, is actually showing greater stability in 2024 than originally expected. It remains our view that ... (full story)