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Obliterating Peak Oil Demand: A Progress Update
In this week’s post we assess near-term “peak oil demand” signposts, none of which support the idea that a peak is imminent by or around 2030. Three points: • “Efficiency gains” are well below levels required to stabilize oil demand at a normal global GDP growth rate let alone drive a decline. • The onset of an “EV Recession” is revealing the absurdity of applying uniform, aggressive EV adoption “s-curves” to all regions as a base-case forecast. • OECD demand, which we agree is mature and we had thought could decline, is actually showing greater stability in 2024 than originally expected. It ... (full story)