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Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Jump After Storms Subside
Russia’s crude oil shipments jumped in the four weeks to December 10, after storms in the Black Sea that had disrupted loadings in November subsided, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday. Russia’s crude oil shipments from all its ports averaged 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to December 10, up by around 114,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to December 3, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. Weekly shipments, which are much more volatile and not representative of average monthly exports, jumped to the highest level since the start of ... (full story)
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Natural gas prices. The Henry Hub spot price in our forecast averages close to $2.80 per million British thermal units this winter (November—March), down more than 60 cents from our November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The downward revision reflects both a warmer-than-average start to the winter, which has reduced demand for space heating in the residential and commercial sectors, and high natural gas production. These two factors have increased natural gas storage inventories. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter 22% above the five-year average (2018–2022), with more than 2,000 billion cubic feet in storage. • Crude oil prices. We forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will increase from an average of $78 per barrel (b) in December to an average of $84/b in the first half of 2024, partly driven by recently announced OPEC+ production cuts. Despite the announced cuts, we lowered our forecast for the Brent price in 2024. We expect the Brent spot price will average $83/b next year, down from our forecast of $93/b in last month’s STEO. • U.S. petroleum and other liquids net exports. W post: EIA STEO REPORT: BRENT CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE TO INCREASE TO AVERAGE OF $84/BBL IN FIRST HALF 2024 FROM $78/BBL IN DECEMBER, PARTLY DRIVEN BY OPEC+ CUTS. post: U.S. EIA CUTS FORECAST FOR 2023 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH BY 30,000 BPD, NOW SEES 1.85 MLN BPD YR-ON-YR INCREASE post: U.S. EIA CUTS FORECAST FOR 2024 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH BY 60,000 BPD, NOW SEES 1.34 MLN BPD YR-ON-YR INCREASEEIA expects combined U.S. solar and wind electricity generation to surpass coal-fired generation in 2024 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects, for the first year on record, combined electricity generation from wind and solar to surpass generation from coal in 2024. EIA expects solar generation in 2024 to increase 39% (228 kilowatthours) from 2023, driven by continued increases in solar capacity. “Renewables, particularly solar photovoltaics, are growing rapidly and making large contributions to electricity generation," DeCarolis said. EIA expects natural gas prices to be $2.77 per million British thermal units this winter, about 23% lower than previously forecast. The winter season is off to a warmer-than-expected start, so U.S. households are consuming less natural gas for heat than expected. The lower natural gas consumption is also contributing to rising U.S. natural gas inventories, which typically results in lower prices. “We’re seeing record domestic natural gas production paired with lower-than-expected natural gas demand, and we expect that is going to push prices lower this winter season,” DeCarolis said. EIA will publish its next STEO on January 9, 2024, including the agency’s first forecasts for the energy sector through 2025.
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a fresh near six-month low on Tuesday on record output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than previously expected ...
video Natural gas markets have fallen again during the trading session on Tuesday, as traders continue to price in the idea some type of massive recession, and of course far too ...
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- Posted: Dec 12, 2023 12:21pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 167