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OPEC+ Faces 5-Year Fight to Avoid Price Meltdown, Rapidan Says
OPEC+ will need to carefully control oil supplies for another five years to avoid a “meltdown” in crude prices, according to Rapidan Energy Group. While global oil demand won’t peak for at least another decade, supplies from outside OPEC — particularly the US — are growing much faster than previously estimated, the Washington-based consultant said in its latest long-term report. “For the next several years, at least, continually unified, vigilant, and effective OPEC+ supply management will be required to prevent a collapse in oil prices,” said Rapidan, founded by former White House official Bob McNally. ... (full story)
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Natural gas prices. The Henry Hub spot price in our forecast averages close to $2.80 per million British thermal units this winter (November—March), down more than 60 cents from our November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The downward revision reflects both a warmer-than-average start to the winter, which has reduced demand for space heating in the residential and commercial sectors, and high natural gas production. These two factors have increased natural gas storage inventories. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter 22% above the five-year average (2018–2022), with more than 2,000 billion cubic feet in storage. • Crude oil prices. We forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will increase from an average of $78 per barrel (b) in December to an average of $84/b in the first half of 2024, partly driven by recently announced OPEC+ production cuts. Despite the announced cuts, we lowered our forecast for the Brent price in 2024. We expect the Brent spot price will average $83/b next year, down from our forecast of $93/b in last month’s STEO. • U.S. petroleum and other liquids net exports. W post: EIA STEO REPORT: BRENT CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE TO INCREASE TO AVERAGE OF $84/BBL IN FIRST HALF 2024 FROM $78/BBL IN DECEMBER, PARTLY DRIVEN BY OPEC+ CUTS. post: U.S. EIA CUTS FORECAST FOR 2023 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH BY 30,000 BPD, NOW SEES 1.85 MLN BPD YR-ON-YR INCREASE post: U.S. EIA CUTS FORECAST FOR 2024 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH BY 60,000 BPD, NOW SEES 1.34 MLN BPD YR-ON-YR INCREASEEIA expects combined U.S. solar and wind electricity generation to surpass coal-fired generation in 2024 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects, for the first year on record, combined electricity generation from wind and solar to surpass generation from coal in 2024. EIA expects solar generation in 2024 to increase 39% (228 kilowatthours) from 2023, driven by continued increases in solar capacity. “Renewables, particularly solar photovoltaics, are growing rapidly and making large contributions to electricity generation," DeCarolis said. EIA expects natural gas prices to be $2.77 per million British thermal units this winter, about 23% lower than previously forecast. The winter season is off to a warmer-than-expected start, so U.S. households are consuming less natural gas for heat than expected. The lower natural gas consumption is also contributing to rising U.S. natural gas inventories, which typically results in lower prices. “We’re seeing record domestic natural gas production paired with lower-than-expected natural gas demand, and we expect that is going to push prices lower this winter season,” DeCarolis said. EIA will publish its next STEO on January 9, 2024, including the agency’s first forecasts for the energy sector through 2025.
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a fresh near six-month low on Tuesday on record output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than previously expected ...
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- Posted: Dec 12, 2023 11:45am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 222