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  • The Employment Situation -- November 2023

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ... (full story)

Added at 8:43am

  • The job market got a little hotter in November

    From businessinsider.com

    The US added 199,000 jobs in November according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest employment report. The forecast for nonfarm payroll employment growth was 180,000. November's growth beats October's growth. October's growth was not revised. It was still a gain of 150,000 per the latest report. September's growth was revised from 297,000 to 262,000. The US unemployment rate was expected to be 3.9% again. It fell to 3.7%. There were 8.7 million US job openings in October, according to Tuesday's data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the lowest number since March 2021. Health care and social ... (full story)

OMG .. VERY VERY GOOD ... GOOD for USD
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I'm sorry to say, but I don't trust these numbers at all.
Employment and economy booming like crazy with rates at 5% + QT. What a time to be alive
Sell the greenback.
Retail trade employment declined by 38,000 in November and has shown little net change over the
year. Employment decreased in department stores (-19,000) and in furniture, home furnishings,
electronics, and appliance retailers (-6,000) over the month.

Consumer is weakening, this isn't good for the economy at all...
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the FED is still hawkish
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Quoting hesron
OMG .. VERY VERY GOOD ... GOOD for USD
I'll not bet that is super for USD, beacuse that is mean that despite of not chainging in rates the economy is still strong, so that is open dorr to go for lower rates...
Everyone makes mistakes, but only few use equity management.
avarege earning rose , this is really good data for usa, end of year with all good data. Wonderfull
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Quoting marcin.kamaj
{quote} I'll not bet that is super for USD, beacuse that is mean that despite of not chainging in rates the economy is still strong, so that is open dorr to go for lower rates...
but now .... very very good for USD .... nobody know tomorrow
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LIES
it is not fair if market not buy usd
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Good opportunity for me today
Devil in the detail as always

Government employment increased by 49,000 in November, in line with the average monthly gain of
55,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up in local government (+32,000)
and state government (+17,000) over the month.

Employment in manufacturing rose by 28,000 in November, reflecting an increase of 30,000 in
motor vehicles and parts as workers returned from a strike. Employment in manufacturing has
shown little net change over the year.

In November, employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up (+40,000), almost
entirely in food services and drinking places. Leisure and hospitality had added an average of
51,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in November (+16,000). The industry had
added an average of 23,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment
continued to trend up in individual and family services (+9,000).

Retail trade employment declined by 38,000 in November and has shown little net change over the
year. Employment decreased in department stores (-19,000) and in furniture, home furnishings,
electronics, and appliance retailers (-6,000) over the month.

In November, employment in information changed little (+10,000). Motion picture and sound
recording industries added 17,000 jobs, mostly reflecting the resolution of labor disputes in
the industry. Overall, employment in the information industry has declined by 104,000 since
reaching a peak in November 2022.
Quoting hesron
it is not fair if market not buy usd
Read the full report

Government employment increased by 49,000 in November, in line with the average monthly gain of
55,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up in local government (+32,000)
and state government (+17,000) over the month.

I mean that's a big chunk of your NFP right there, which are bullsh1t jobs not net positive for the economy.

Retail trade employment declined by 38,000 in November and has shown little net change over the
year. Employment decreased in department stores (-19,000) and in furniture, home furnishings,
electronics, and appliance retailers (-6,000) over the month.

Employment in transportation and warehousing changed little in November (-5,000). A job loss
in warehousing and storage (-8,000) was partially offset by a gain in air transportation
(+4,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has declined by 61,000 since a peak
in October 2022.

This what matters, it shows how strong the consumer market is... and it is dramatically weakening
FED will intervence in a few minute
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Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} Read the full report Government employment increased by 49,000 in November, in line with the average monthly gain of 55,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up in local government (+32,000) and state government (+17,000) over the month. I mean that's a big chunk of your NFP right there, which are bullsh1t jobs not net positive for the economy. Retail trade employment declined by 38,000 in November and has shown little net change over the year. Employment decreased in department stores (-19,000) and in furniture, home...
And much also related to workers on strike coming back. Its framed positively but I dont buy into that story.
More government jobs that normal people never see, this is f..n bs. Were you put 49k guys to work in gobernment?
see price down ..... big investor buy USD now
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EURUSD .... tf daily big bearish engulfing pattern now
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I am starting to short companies in retailer-credit space.
gold bearish .... so what rumor to make confuse ... all is very clear buy usd
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euro going down.
looking at 1.055
NFP-related Data may be proven as trusted. Investors are buying strong
GDP strong ... inflation down .... hikes intrest rate Dec ....... all is good now for big investor to buy usd
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christmas jobs ...
Everybody come in contact with their chat but not all could deduce the days trend is a pity.
Look at the chat very well is selling it in CAPITAL letter that the usd is weak.
".......job market got a little hotter......." Yeah, "little" is right!

That's less than 1% of the illegal immigration over the past several years!

And what were the pay scales and benefits........?????

Still the normal bullshit to desensitize and quell the non-elite.
Quoting Banditten
{quote} And much also related to workers on strike coming back. Its framed positively but I dont buy into that story.
Agreed I can put my house on it that next NFP this NFP will be revised down, it's typical at this point.
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No rate cuts... for now
Yeah, that wages component was double the previous month. It will be hard for the fed to cut in the near future.
Rate cut is a pipe dream. I'd bet that BOJ intervene is more likely than the U.S lower rate. All data is fake news, just go to the grocery store yourself. Inflation is nowhere close to what they advertised. This is all Biden's number for his reelection bid.
i'ma give it to you guys simple we've been pricing in rate cuts on usd for a while after the continuous rate hikes stopped, so now the data shows that the us market is still strong, so even though the Fed might not hike rates, but we could expect that the fed will wait for while before thinking about lowering rates, therefore stronger dollar. but you never know if the market gonna match the fundamentals there are a lot of variables concerning other currencies so just keep that in mind.
Quoting Ftmofx
NFP-related Data may be proven as trusted. Investors are buying strong
What happened to fed for sure cutting rates lol?
Bidenomics has provided U.S with strength and resilience, while protecting american jobs!
Very bullish for the dollar.
Equality will be the next big thing in trading
Quoting Ferna
Bidenomics has provided U.S with strength and resilience, while protecting american jobs! Very bullish for the dollar.
When the market euphoria has been distributed we’re going to see one heck of a reversal .

They’re rotating the stocks to keep the market momentum
Quoting Ferna
Bidenomics has provided U.S with strength and resilience, while protecting american jobs! Very bullish for the dollar.
Quoting Vancarbon
When the market euphoria has been distributed we’re going to see one heck of a reversal . They’re rotating the stocks to keep the market momentum
Oh dear. yes there will be a pullback at some stage but NO CRASH. I hope u are no PERMABEAR. Rotation is bullish in a bullmarket.Money rotates into the cheaper shares that have not not run. normal bullmarket stuff. Easy way to tell when big players are bearish is when they buy defensive shares - are they??? NO. Rotation is a normal and healthy part of bull markets. Where are we in the presidental cycle??? 4th year is bullish. What happens in lead-off to election??? They announce big bribes to buy peoples votes - big spending stufff - normal stuff - to be bearsish is??????????? bullish till June next year then uncertainty with the election - to be bearish is crazy??????????? I just shake my head - The markets are bullish
Quoting Steven1
{quote} Oh dear. yes there will be a pullback at some stage but NO CRASH. I hope u are no PERMABEAR. Rotation is bullish in a bullmarket.Money rotates into the cheaper shares that have not not run. normal bullmarket stuff. Easy way to tell when big players are bearish is when they buy defensive shares - are they??? NO. Rotation is a normal and healthy part of bull markets. Where are we in the presidental cycle??? 4th year is bullish. What happens in lead-off to election??? They announce big bribes to buy peoples votes - big spending stufff - normal...
So you ( not U - that’s a letter ,depending on your age , it’s also grammatically correct) used a synonym.

Pullback- Reversal -same thing .

Rotation within the Nasdaq , suggest you do some research on the magnificent 7 . These are the drivers of the US market.

I would put good odds on the first quarter and I’m fairly sure of the month it’ll start . You keep shaking that little head of yours
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} So you ( not U - that’s a letter ,depending on your age , it’s also grammatically correct) used a synonym. Pullback- Reversal -same thing . Rotation within the Nasdaq , suggest you do some research on the magnificent 7 . These are the drivers of the US market. I would put good odds on the first quarter and I’m fairly sure of the month it’ll start . You keep shaking that little head of yours
Actually u need to do some research??? Only 7 stocks have been going up??? Don't believe the media rubbish and instead believe the charts. there is more than 7 stocks going up besides than mag 7. Makes me laugh so much. rotation is bullish - in my 17 years of shares trading i just shake my head - u have been listening to the doom and gloom stuff too much - share markets around the world are breaking out to new all time highs - that is bullish not bearish - i have been seeing the permabears saying every year the share markets would crash and keep been wrong every year - the longer term cycle is bullish till the end of this decade - why do people have to go against the trend i don't know. One secret to let u know - retail has removed 240 billion from US shares this year - retail is always wrong - when retail pile back in long US shares than the top will be in but till than it is safe to be long
Quoting Vancarbon
I’ve told you once , it’s “you “ , not “U “ . How old are you ? Only 17 years ! You weren’t even a fetus when I started then , I suppose that explains the spelling . Thanks for your pearls of wisdom . I think we’re talking different timeframes so I’ll let you go on your merry way . U tek care
Well what timeframe are u talking about? u never mentioned it above?
As for "" you not u "" - different country different spelling - bit picky now when trading is the game
Did u give any info for your reason for shares to go down? apart from going up a lot? NO - 90% here say stuff with no substance to back it up lol
I have no idea as to where stocks are going. Never the less I am constantly long shares on my investment portfolio. I never entertain the idea that I can pick the top or the buttom so I pour money into ETFs every month. I get some cheap and other cheaper and some very expensive. I will not be needing the money until 30 years from now and I am confident that in 30 years its up from here. It may be down - even a lot - during these 30 years but I dont care.

Burry called the crash over and over and over again and as reasonable as a crash would seem given all the shit we are in it just has not happened. If you took his short calls you would be deep under water by now I guess.

My short time speculation is a different story.
Well when Burry called it, we had a significiant movement down. So i guess he made money.
It was 10% down move, and now we retraced that 10%.

Or you saying he is strictly in it for long-term?
Equality will be the next big thing in trading
Quoting Ferna
Well when Burry called it, we had a significiant movement down. So i guess he made money. It was 10% down move, and now we retraced that 10%. Or you saying he is strictly in it for long-term?
I have no idea which positions he is in. But I believe hid last short was options. My point was that bears has called it so many times but still we havent seen that crash. Will it come? Nobody knows. They trade theirs, you trade yours and I trade my positions and the beauty about trading is that we can all make money trading opposite directions.
Only the papertiger gets it righr every time ((: we all know who that us I support..
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