On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso interpret the latest macroeconomic data and prepare for a week of important central bank meetings. They wonder whether the recent bullish movements in nearly every risk asset is a sign that quantitative easing (QE) is back on a global scale (the answer is a firm “no”). After discussing commodity prices, Andreas and Alfonso explore whether a very unusual kind of recession occurred in 2022 that is already over. Lastly, they share their actionable trade ideas.
No its not over. That’s because economic growth is slowing down. Even the areas which contributed positively to gross domestic product (GDP) are not necessarily signs of prosperity. For example, business investment grew at only 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, but that was almost entirely inventory growth. Nonresidential investment, a key driver of future economic growth, was up just 0.7 percent.
Meanwhile, residential investment fell off a cliff, dropping 26.7 percent as consumers were unable to afford the combination of high home prices, high interest rates and falling real incomes. No wonder homeownership affordability has fallen to the lowest level in that metric’s history. But the growth in inventories, which accounted for half the GDP growth in the fourth quarter, is not a good sign, either. It is the result of businesses being unable to sell off existing inventories at current prices. Liquidating that inventory at discounts will mean lower profits, a further drag on future growth.
The most troubling information in the GDP report is the precipitous drop in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. For context, this is the second-largest percentage drop in real disposable income ever, behind only 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression.
Right. As Charles Bronson always said, "Dis ain't ovah." Why don't you sign up so you can post in people's threads? Anyway, after the last week of FOMO, I bet there'll be some sad bag holders come Wednesday. But, we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake