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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in May to 102.0 (1985=100) from 97.5 in April (a slight upward revision). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 143.1 (1985=100) in May from 140.6 in April. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term ...
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This paper seeks to understand the general equilibrium effects of time-varying geopolitical risk in oil markets. Answering this question requires simultaneously modeling several features including macroeconomic disasters and geopolitically driven oil production disasters, oil storage and precautionary savings, and the endogenous determination of uncertainty ...