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- ell3 replied Nov 28, 2016
next targets 7578 is a big one (was strong support previously, now flipping to resistance) 7511 quite likely to be hit - also preceded by the 100bar 4H moving average - should pose some level of resistance; although i doubt strong enough to send it ...
- ell3 replied Nov 22, 2016
take a look at my charts - Daily: - rejected off the ascending trend line connecting the aug/sept '15 low - this treats the break below the trend line in Dec-Jan '16 as a false break, following the FOMC raising rates in Dec '15 Hourly: - pair has ...
- ell3 replied Nov 17, 2016
i think it's time to discuss the USD, more than the AUD. while the AUD is going down, it has fallen only around 4% against the USD in the past two weeks. whereas the euro & jpy have both fallen around 8%. at the same time commodities have also ...
- ell3 replied Nov 3, 2016
shared view absolutely right about the multiple failures above 77c. but equally right about the congestion building up at the upper 76c. in my opinion, the market doesn't know where to go now. the rational direction should be up, because of ...
- ell3 replied Oct 26, 2016
probably at either of these two levels for an intraday trade, i'd be willing to take the risk and target 77cents for TP. sell once at 7734, because that'll mean the pair has done 100pips for today; it will definitely retrace. if it goes further, ...
- ell3 replied Oct 25, 2016
hmm so many bears here. i still think that it's neutral now. it will take an actual rate cut from the RBA or increase from the Fed to push it below and back into a bearish track. the market appears to have been waiting for this before making any ...
- ell3 replied Oct 12, 2016
here we are again at an important level. trend line support for 2016. if it gives way, the implication is that this pair will fall through quite a bit, first target being 7440 (september low). if it bounces off, we could most likely be seeing a ...
- ell3 replied Sep 28, 2016
we have again reached the brink of breakout. will it breakout? or will it bounce off and fall back? the difference between now and the previous attempts (from 7834 in april & 7750ish in aug & early sept) is that we have no market-moving data/central ...
- ell3 replied Sep 22, 2016
a few of the heavier uptrend moves this year met significant resistance at that level on the daily chart. if you zoom into the 2hr/1hr charts, you'll find that that level was also significant support in august on the few days when the pair went ...
- ell3 replied Sep 22, 2016
yeap. moves like this are great for catching the bounce off resistance. very clear resistance lines, with 7676 being a strong one. me thinks this pair still has a bit more room to run before any thought of a proper downtrend fits in (see chart). for ...
- ell3 replied Aug 22, 2016
Sharing my short term trading chart - i use this for scalping. Purple lines are S/R lines which i anticipate will see a bigger bounce off. So i generally execute a trade in the opposite direction when it reaches these lines. Of course i don't ...
- ell3 replied Aug 17, 2016
Testing a critical point of convergence - 4hr 100ma also now at 7619. I really wonder whether this support will hold, given that its already come 100pips down today. If FOMC minutes ring a dovish tone, AUD may easily shoot back above 7660. If ...
- ell3 replied Aug 17, 2016
lower trend line and 200hma still holding firmly. bulls still have control. bought @ 7673, unfortunately before it went further down below but held onto it. now targeting 7683 for a 10pip profit in case it fails under the 100hma. demand for the AUD ...
- ell3 replied Aug 15, 2016
mysterious fall, unaccounted for. such moves which don't make sense (sudden large moves) usually get faded. AUD fallen below 200hma to the bottom of the trend channel again. i see this as a great buy opportunity. went long a little too early at ...
- ell3 replied Aug 14, 2016
bounced off 7637. made my first buy trade from there today and closed at 7646.8. looks heavy still, although the pattern drawn is inconclusive. pattern recognition tells me it could really go either way from here. if it falls, then down to 7637 ...
- ell3 replied Aug 14, 2016
Okay, the AUD closed the week with conflicting signals. - Friday's US retail sales data basically affirms the case for any US hike to be pushed further back, the implication of which should be slightly bearish for the USD - The USD has indeed lost ...
- ell3 replied Aug 10, 2016
US dollar weakness has also been a key driver today and the USD has just completed a round trip. This could lead to a bounce off the current level. 7626 looks like a fake out above the important 7720 resistance level. (plus perhaps some knock on ...
- ell3 replied May 16, 2016
watch what happens from here. today's uptrend looks like it's giving way to the downside. if it sustains below that trend line, i'm going to call a short... but in case it's a false breakout then the stop goes above that line. imo the so called ...
- ell3 replied Apr 26, 2016
well, this right now is pivotal. If the uptrend line gets broken on this piece of fundamental data, we could indeed look at a return to the downtrend. Perhaps wait for following statements on the data..if any of the RBA guys will make any comments ...
- ell3 replied Apr 22, 2016
i've got.... 1) 7705 - 61.8% fib of this week's bottom to top move 2) 7690 3) rising trend, lower line of the move up from 1 march (currently at 7670ish) 4) 7644 the next important target bulls look for should be (3) since that's effectively the ...
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