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- mchael replied May 8, 2012
It takes a while for the reality to sink into the mindset of the market. There has been so much bullish activity and belief on top of the RBA stoking it by holding back with high interest rates, it's just too hard for people to shift their ...
- mchael replied May 8, 2012
A bit starry eyed on this one. Look closer at the retail data - it points to slowdown behaviour. Takeway and eating our are up. Household spending down. The mining sector just wont be able to hold up the rest of the employment needs and we all know ...
- mchael replied Jul 28, 2011
From RBA... Based on this there can't be any further interest rate rises for a while. And if this continue in negative territory - interest rate cuts will be on the agenda. June 2011 Release date: 29 July 2011 Total credit provided to the private ...
- mchael replied Jul 28, 2011
Australia's CPI is the same number as the US at 3.6%. Many of the underlying factors are very simillar and point to a global effect than a localised Australian issue. The Australian consumer is already under pressure due to high housing costs and ...
- mchael replied Dec 13, 2010
Yes please - that would be awesome! thanks in advance
- mchael replied Oct 8, 2009
And watch exporters and manufacturers hit the wall. Then watch Govt revenues decline, unemployment go up all when property prices plummet. Perfect storm brewing here. A lot of the action is USD weakness with a few pips on irrational exuberance on ...
- mchael replied May 30, 2009
How has the mercury retrograde affect the market in the last month? How will the Jupiter retrograde effect the market starting in mid june? Do you think this effects people's belief systems and how they trade?
- mchael replied May 15, 2009
AUD is simple tracking the USD weakness along with all other currencies, namely NZD and EURO. Watch for kety data in the coming weaks. The current rally will taper back and the Aussie will be back under 70 cents Watch the Yen closely. If the YEN/AUD ...
- mchael replied Sep 25, 2008
even if it breaks 86 it will be short term I suggest caution as the Rba has there finger on the drop interest rate button. Infra day rates are up in Australia with this global financial bump and then it is clear global growth/demand will be soft ...
- mchael replied Sep 24, 2008
I am Australian. For Australia to do well and for the world to do well we need the US to do well. And they will. the $700B bailout is not 700B down the drain. They are buying assets on the cheap to a scale that only the US Govt could do. Over the ...
- mchael replied Sep 24, 2008
EU and Japanese demand has dropped due to the effects of the US. Given Eu labor and wage policy they have higher wages and higher unemployment whereas Us businesses have more flexibility Don't underestimate the US Yes in the next ten years china ...
- mchael replied Sep 23, 2008
aaaaaahhhh - the commodity boom was ignited by the US, chinas boom was ignited by the us and Australia relies on both and you also need to look carefully at Australian household debt levels. If it is game over for the US it is game over for ...
- mchael replied Sep 21, 2008
I would'nt be so sure. The Australian economy continues to weaken and more rate cuts in Australia are on the cards. Commodities got a boost last week but I suspect this might be hedge funds playing in different markets like FX and commodities as ...
- mchael replied Aug 21, 2008
US Equities are cheap and I bet people started selling out when some US banks hiccuped again on writedowns and the market got spooked. I reckon the USD has a lot more strength in it the market is yet to realise. The whole downturn has well and truly ...
- mchael replied Aug 19, 2008
It's summer time and there's the Olympics. I wouldn't expect much action till September. I think the smart movers would be waiting to see the numbers for this quarter as it will be this quarter's data that proves a turning point. Trend: The AUD ...
- mchael replied Aug 19, 2008
it'll be the US data out tonight in relation to PPI and housing coupled with commodity prices that will provide the wind to see where it blows in the short term. If commodity prices continue flat or downward into September that will give more ...
- mchael replied Aug 14, 2008
I'm saying this is a short term stop before we go downward again. See this post back in May: url You'll notice the mid and lates 80's dramatic rise and subsequent falls. In those cycles on the downward trend there was a point where it bounced a ...
- mchael replied Aug 14, 2008
This is just everyone freakin out at the dramatic and fast decline. The market is confused and cant handle the reality. Interest rates are gonna come down, then the aussie follows suit.
- mchael replied Aug 14, 2008
dont get too excited - it's a short consolidation as everyone was spooked at the dramatic drop. Interest rates are gonna come down - the trend down is starting to play out.
- mchael replied Aug 9, 2008
knowing the fundamentals means you know the trends and how to properly play your positions within those trends. Then within that you need to know the technicals to understand the irrationality of traders and the day to day flows so you can play to ...